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What causes economic growth in Malaysia: exports or imports ?

Listed author(s):
  • Hashim, Khairul
  • Masih, Mansur

Most of previous researches have only focused on the effect of export expansion on economic growth while ignoring the potential of import in developing economic growth. This study makes an attempt to examine the relationship between trade and economic growth in Malaysia with emphasis on both the role of exports and imports. This study treats exports and imports separately to allow for the possibility that their influence toward economic growth is asymmetric and adopts recent advances in time series modeling. This study used Granger causality test and impulse response functions to examine whether growth in trade stimulates economic growth. It is important to examine the linkage between trade and economic growth for Malaysia in order to provide evidence whether rapid economic growth in the region is driven by trade or whether there is reciprocal impact between growth and trade. The results tend to suggest that the singular focus of past studies on exports as engine of growth may be misleading. The results confirm the bidirectional long run relationships between the economic growth and exports, economic growth and imports and exports and imports. From a policy point of view, investigating the causal links between trade and economic growth generates important implications for the development strategies of developing countries. If exports drive economic growth, policy should promote exports, and likewise for imports.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/62366/1/MPRA_paper_62366.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 62366.

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Date of creation: 14 Aug 2014
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:62366
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  1. Awokuse, Titus O., 2007. "Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 389-395, March.
  2. Sumie Sato & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2007. "The End of Import-Led Growth? North Korean Evidence," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 07-38, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
  3. Faridul Islam, 2012. "Import-economic growth nexus: ARDL approach to cointegration," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(3), pages 194-214, September.
  4. Shandre Mugan Thangavelu & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2004. "Is there an export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? a multivariate VAR analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1083-1093.
  5. Jai Mah, 2005. "Export expansion, economic growth and causality in China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 105-107.
  6. Mahadevan, Renuka & Suardi, Sandy, 2008. "A dynamic analysis of the impact of uncertainty on import- and/or export-led growth: The experience of Japan and the Asian Tigers," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 155-174, March.
  7. Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye & Houda Ben Haj Boubaker, 2011. "Exports, Imports and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Tunisia," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1), pages 6-21, February.
  8. Titus Awokuse, 2006. "Export-led growth and the Japanese economy: evidence from VAR and directed acyclic graphs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 593-602.
  9. Xiaohui Liu & Chang Shu & Peter Sinclair, 2009. "Trade, foreign direct investment and economic growth in Asian economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(13), pages 1603-1612.
  10. Robert McNab & Robert Moore, 1998. "Trade policy, export expansion, human capital and growth," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 237-256.
  11. Ahmad, Jaleel & Harnhirun, Somchai, 1995. "Unit roots and cointegration in estimating causality between exports and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the ASEAN countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 329-334, September.
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