IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/82113.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Export orientation vs import substitution : which strategy should the government adopt? Evidence from Malaysia

Author

Listed:
  • Nurhaliq, Puteri
  • Masih, Mansur

Abstract

Many previous empirical studies focused mainly on the effect of export expansion while ignoring the potential contribution of import substitution in developing economic growth especially for the case of emerging countries. This paper attempts to investigate the relationship between trade and economic growth emphasising the role of import and export in Malaysia over the period 1970 to 2014. The study treats the impact of export and import separately to allow the possibility of asym-metric influences on economic growth by adopting recent time series modelling. The study used Granger Causality test and Variance Decomposition (VDC) method to analyse the influences of trade improvement on growth development. This is important in providing evidence whether growth is driven mainly by trade activities or whether there is a reciprocal impact between trade and growth. The result confirms the existence of bidirectional long run relationship between growth and export and between growth and import, suggesting that singular focus on export from previous study tends to be misleading. This is crucial from the policy point of view in developing strategies to enhance growth. If export drives the economic growth, policy should be directed more towards export orientation and likewise for import.

Suggested Citation

  • Nurhaliq, Puteri & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Export orientation vs import substitution : which strategy should the government adopt? Evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 82113, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:82113
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/82113/1/MPRA_paper_82113.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mahadevan, Renuka & Suardi, Sandy, 2008. "A dynamic analysis of the impact of uncertainty on import- and/or export-led growth: The experience of Japan and the Asian Tigers," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 155-174, March.
    2. Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye & Houda Ben Haj Boubaker, 2011. "Exports, Imports and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Tunisia," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1), pages 6-21, February.
    3. Xiaming Liu & Haiyan Song & Peter Romilly, 1997. "An empirical investigation of the causal relationship between openness and economic growth in China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(12), pages 1679-1686.
    4. Titus Awokuse, 2006. "Export-led growth and the Japanese economy: evidence from VAR and directed acyclic graphs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 593-602.
    5. Kavoussi, Rostam M., 1984. "Export expansion and economic growth : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 241-250.
    6. Awokuse, Titus O., 2007. "Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 389-395, March.
    7. Riezman, R.G. & Whiteman, C.H., 1991. "World Business Cycles," Working Papers 91-26, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
    8. Fajana, Olufemi, 1979. "Trade and growth: The Nigerian experience," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 73-78, January.
    9. Shandre Mugan Thangavelu & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2004. "Is there an export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? a multivariate VAR analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1083-1093.
    10. Robert McNab & Robert Moore, 1998. "Trade policy, export expansion, human capital and growth," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 237-256.
    11. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
    12. Xiaohui Liu & Chang Shu & Peter Sinclair, 2009. "Trade, foreign direct investment and economic growth in Asian economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(13), pages 1603-1612.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. V.Yu. Chernova & B.A. Kheyfets, 2018. "Tools for Estimating the Effectiveness of Import-Substituting Modernization: Case in the Agriculture of Russia," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 179-191.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hashim, Khairul & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "What causes economic growth in Malaysia: exports or imports ?," MPRA Paper 62366, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ritu Rani & Naresh Kumar, 2018. "Is There an Export- or Import-led Growth in BRICS Countries? An Empirical Investigation," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 7(1), pages 13-23, June.
    3. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    4. Olufemi Adewale Aluko Adefemi A. Obalade, 2020. "Import-economic growth nexus in selected African countries: An application of the Toda-Yamamoto Granger non-causality test," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 23(2), pages 117-128, November.
    5. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4039-4214, Elsevier.
    6. Faridul Islam & Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2012. "Import‐economic growth nexus: ARDL approach to cointegration," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(3), pages 194-214, September.
    7. Christian Dreger & Dierk Herzer, 2013. "A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 39-60, August.
    8. Turan Subasat, 2003. "Does the Dollar Index Really Measure Outward Orientation?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 309-326.
    9. Joshua J. Lewer & Hendrik Van den Berg, 2003. "How Large Is International Trade’s Effect on Economic Growth?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 363-396, July.
    10. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra, 2020. "Role of External and Domestic Demand in Economic Growth: A Study of BRICS Countries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(2), pages 547-566, April.
    11. NguyenHuu, Tams & Karaman Örsal, Deniz Dilan, 2020. "A new and benign hegemon on the horizon? The Chinese century and growth in the Global South," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 14, pages 1-35.
    12. Ana María Cuadros Ramos, 2000. "Exportaciones y crecimiento económico: Un análisis de causalidad para México," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 15(1), pages 37-64.
    13. João Paulo Martin Faleiros & Denisard Cnéio de Oliveira Alves, 2008. "Modelo de Crescimento Baseado nas Exportações: Evidências empíricas para Chile, Brasil e México, em uma perspectiva Não Linear," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807170923500, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    14. Konstantinos Chisiridis & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2018. "The Relationship Between Greek Exports and Foreign Income," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 64(1), pages 99-114.
    15. Konstantinos Chisiridis & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2017. "The Relationship Between Greek Exports and Foreign Regional Income," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 111, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    16. Alper Aslan & Ebru Topcu, 2018. "The Relationship between Export and Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Turkish Sectors," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-15, April.
    17. Julen Berasaluce & José Romero, 2017. "Economic growth and the external sector: Evidence from Korea, lessons for Mexico," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 32(1), pages 95-131.
    18. Asmawi Hashim & Norimah Rambeli & Norasibah Abdul Jalil & Normala Zulkifli & Emilda Hashim & Noor Al-Huda Abdul Karim, 2019. "Does Export Led Growth Hypothesis Hold Under World Crisis Recovery Regime in Malaysia?," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(5), pages 9-19, December.
    19. Konstantinos Chisiridis & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2018. "The Relationship Between Greek Exports and Foreign Income," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 64(1), pages 99-114.
    20. Hye, Qazi Muhammad Adnan & Wizarat, Shahida & Lau, Wee-Yeap, 2013. "Trade-led growth hypothesis: An empirical analysis of South Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 654-660.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export orientation; import substitution; Malaysia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:82113. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.