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Acnowledging for spatial effects in the Portuguese housing markets

  • G. Carvalho, Pedro
  • Ribeiro, Alexandra

The aim of this paper is to revisit a former paper on the Portuguese housing market (1995), acknowledging for spatial effects in order to interpret housing market changes over 1995-2001. The paper will include a first section devoted to explain the differences between the OLS regression analysis and spatial econometrics, explaining the theoretical background used to develop a spatial lag model with the same database; the second section will show the misspecification problems we found when we ran the same model for after 1995-1998 databases; the third section is devoted to describe new housing literature findings relating housing market evolution with the macroeconomic cycles in Portugal; as a consequence the fourth section will include the method we developed with recent census data, to explain the evolution of the country macroeconomic cycles and the agents’ new behavioural attitudes concerning housing; finally and using spatial analysis we can understand the main changes occurred over the 1995-2001 period. The evaluation of the results contradicts some mainstream scholar and political knowledge to explain spatial inequalities between coast and interior municipalities. Complexity issues seem to be present when we consider the way different market agents make decisions on housing markets, looking this good either as a place to live or an alternative investment asset. In the concluding remarks we raise some new interesting questions for further research.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6132/1/MPRA_paper_6132.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 6132.

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Date of creation: 31 Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6132
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  1. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
  2. Lastrapes, William D., 2002. "The Real Price of Housing and Money Supply Shocks: Time Series Evidence and Theoretical Simulations," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 40-74, March.
  3. Nordvik, Viggo, 2006. "Selective housing policy in local housing markets and the supply of housing," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 279-292, December.
  4. Donald Bruce & Douglas Holtz-Eakin, 1997. "Apocalypse Now? Fundamental Tax Reform and Residential Housing Values," NBER Working Papers 6282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald, 1980. "The Theory of Housing and Interest Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(04), pages 833-847, November.
  6. Goodman, Allen C., 2005. "Central cities and housing supply: Growth and decline in US cities," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 315-335, December.
  7. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
  8. James M. Poterba, 1983. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset Market Approach," Working papers 339, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  9. Pedro Guedes Carvalho, 2003. "Housing Demand in Portugal," Econometrics 0303005, EconWPA.
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