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Industrial production and Confidence after the crisis: what's going on?

  • Malgarini, Marco

The paper provides new evidence on possible structural breaks in the relationship among business Confidence and industrial activity in Europe in the aftermath of the recession. Possible interpretation is that the crisis has determined a change in the pattern of response in surveys, firms now incorporating a lower level of long term output. A confirmation comes from the analysis of survey data on capacity utilisation: we find indeed that perceived potential output or potential output growth has declined throughout the euro area. Results may be rather important for business cycle analysts and policy makers: for the former, the suggestion is to consider business survey data with particular care, since their interpretation has changed as a consequence of the crisis. Policy makers on the other hand should consider that the recession has changed long term expectations of agents, possibly significantly affecting transmission channels of both monetary and fiscal policies.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53813/1/MPRA_paper_53813.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 53813.

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Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53813
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  1. Marco Malgarini & Antonio Paradiso, 2012. "Measuring capacity utilisation in the italian manufacturing sector: a comparison between time series and survey estimates," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(2), pages 5-19.
  2. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  3. Cesaroni, Tatiana & Maccini, Louis & Malgarini, Marco, 2011. "Business cycle stylized facts and inventory behaviour: New evidence for the Euro area," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 12-24, September.
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