Behavioural models for manufacturing firms: analysing survey data
Survey data on manufacturing firms are usually analysed on an aggregate basis, calculating for each question the so-called "balance" between the number of positive and negative replies. The simple average of selected balances is then commonly used to calculate the confidence indicator. While balance and confidence indicators provide an easy-to-compute and easy-to-understand quantification of survey results, and therefore are considered useful tools to analyse the sector’s cyclical situation, a cyclical analysis based on balance and confidence indicators alone fails to fully exploit all the information embedded in the survey. More specifically, computation of the balance statistic disregards "neutral" answers to survey questions and no attempt is made to identify potential relationships between the different responses to the various survey questions given by the same firms. A more in-depth study of this information can provide interesting insights into firms’ opinions on the economic situation. The contribution presents a new methodology based on cluster analysis that takes into account also the neutral answers and then uses it to assess the similarities and differences between the recent crisis and current recovery, and to compare these to past cyclical crises, specifically, the major recession of 1992-1993 and subsequent recovery in 1993-1995.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 2011/4 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.francoangeli.it/riviste/sommario.asp?IDRivista=13|
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.francoangeli.it/riviste/Elenco_Prodotti.aspx?startCode=DC Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Martin Weale, 2005.
CESifo Working Paper Series
1599, CESifo Group Munich.
- Tommaso Proietti & Cecilia Frale, 2007.
"New proposals for the quantification of qualitative survey data,"
CEIS Research Paper
98, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
- Tommaso Proietti & Cecilia Frale, 2011. "New proposals for the quantification of qualitative survey data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 393-408, July.
- Cesaroni, Tatiana & Maccini, Louis & Malgarini, Marco, 2011.
"Business cycle stylized facts and inventory behaviour: New evidence for the Euro area,"
International Journal of Production Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 12-24, September.
- Tatiana Cesaroni & Louis Maccini & Marco Malgarini, 2009. "Business cycle volatility and inventories behavior:new evidence for the Euro Area," ISAE Working Papers 108, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
- Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May.
- Dr Martin Weale, 2005. "Survey Expectations," NIESR Discussion Papers 260, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Meila, Marina, 2007. "Comparing clusterings--an information based distance," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 98(5), pages 873-895, May.
- Glenn Milligan & Martha Cooper, 1985. "An examination of procedures for determining the number of clusters in a data set," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 159-179, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fan:polipo:v:html10.3280/poli2011-004005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Angelo Ventriglia)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.