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Democratization and civil war

  • Armey, Laura E.
  • McNab, Robert M.

We examine the impact of civil war on democratization. Using a theoretical bargaining model, we hypothesize that prolonged violence, war termination, the presence of natural resources, and international intervention influence democratization. We test these hypotheses using an unbalanced panel data set of 96 countries covering a 34-year period. We determine that civil war lowers democratization in the succeeding period. This finding appears to be robust to conditioning, different instrument sets, and the measurement of democracy. In addition, we observe evidence that external intervention increases democratization.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 42460.

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Date of creation: 01 Sep 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42460
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  1. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
  2. Michael McBride & Gary Milante & Stergios Skaperdas, 2009. "Peace and War with Endogenous State Capacity," Working Papers 091002, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
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  4. Mehmet Gurses & T. David Mason, 2008. "Democracy Out of Anarchy: The Prospects for Post-Civil-War Democracy," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 89(2), pages 315-336.
  5. R Blundell & Steven Bond, . "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
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  8. Benedikt Heid & Julian Langer & Mario Larch, 2011. "Income and democracy:Evidence from system GMM estimates," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 118, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  9. Perotti, Roberto, 1996. " Growth, Income Distribution, and Democracy: What the Data Say," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 149-87, June.
  10. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson & Pierre Yared, 2008. "Income and Democracy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 808-42, June.
  11. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 2001. "The curse of natural resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 827-838, May.
  12. Paul Collier & Lisa Chauvet, 2008. "Elections and Economic Policy in Developing Countries," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2008-34, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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  14. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 1999. "The big push, natural resource booms and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-76, June.
  15. Bruce Cronin, 2010. "Be careful what you wish for: War aims and the construction of postwar political orders," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(6), pages 791-801, November.
  16. Collier, Paul, 2008. "The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195374636, March.
  17. Csordás, Stefan & Ludwig, Markus, 2011. "An empirical investigation of the determinants of democracy: Trade, aid and the neighbor effect," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 235-237, March.
  18. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson & Pierre Yared, 2005. "From Education to Democracy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 44-49, May.
  19. Silje Aslaksen, 2010. "Oil and democracy: More than a cross-country correlation?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(4), pages 421-431, July.
  20. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  21. Dawn Brancati & Jack L. Snyder, 2011. "Rushing to the Polls: The Causes of Premature Postconflict Elections," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 55(3), pages 469-492, June.
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