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The Paradox of “Warlord†Democracy: A Theoretical Investigation

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  • LEONARD, WANTCHEKON

Abstract

Political theorists from Machiavelli to Huntington have denied the possibility of popular government arising out of the chaos of civil war, instead prescribing an intermediate stage of one-man rule by a Prince, Leviathan, or a military dictator. Based on recent empirical evidence of post-civil war democratization in El Salvador, Mozambique, and elsewhere, I show that democracy can arise directly from anarchy. Predatory warring factions choose the citizenry and democratic procedures over a Leviathan when (1) their economic interests depend on productive investment by the citizens, (2) citizens' political preferences ensure that power allocation will be less biased under democracy than under a Leviathan, and (3) there is an external agency (e.g., the United Nations) that mediates and supervises joint disarmament and state-building. Ultimately, I discuss the implications of this argument for the basic intuitions of classical political theory and contemporary social theory regarding democratization and authoritarianism.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonard, Wantchekon, 2004. "The Paradox of “Warlord†Democracy: A Theoretical Investigation," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 17-33, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:98:y:2004:i:01:p:17-33_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew T. Young, 2016. "What does it take for a roving bandit settle down? Theory and an illustrative history of the Visigoths," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 75-102, July.
    2. Georgy Egorov & Konstantin Sonin, 2011. "Dictators And Their Viziers: Endogenizing The Loyalty–Competence Trade‐Off," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(5), pages 903-930, October.
    3. Armey, Laura E. & McNab, Robert M., 2012. "Democratization and civil war," MPRA Paper 42460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Christopher Blattman, 2008. "From Violence to Voting: War and political participation in Uganda," Working Papers 138, Center for Global Development.
    5. S. Guriev & G. Egorov & K. Sonin, 2007. "Media Freedom, Bureaucratic Incentives, and the Resource Curse," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    6. Wagner, Matthew L, 2016. "The civil war puzzle revisited: The use of post-conflict elections as part of peace agreements," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-24.
    7. Desha M. Girod, 2015. "Reducing postconflict coup risk: The low windfall coup-proofing hypothesis," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(2), pages 153-174, April.
    8. Eric Mvukiyehe, 2018. "Promoting Political Participation in War-torn Countries," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(8), pages 1686-1726, September.
    9. Chang, Alex Chuan-hsien, 2018. "How do Asian values constrain public support for redistribution?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 139-150.
    10. Thomas Edward Flores & Irfan Nooruddin, 2009. "Democracy under the Gun Understanding Postconflict Economic Recovery," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(1), pages 3-29, February.
    11. Libman, Alexander, 2008. "Government-business relations in post-Soviet space: The case of Central Asia," MPRA Paper 11874, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Konstantin Sonin & Georgy Egorov, 2011. "Incumbency Advantage in Nondemocratic Elections," 2011 Meeting Papers 417, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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