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The civil war puzzle revisited: The use of post-conflict elections as part of peace agreements


  • Wagner, Matthew L


Can post-conflict elections be used as a tool for peace? Existing research shows that post conflict elections produce even more conflict. However, what much of the existing research fails to consider the instances of credible third party involvement in these elections. Using an event history model with a cross-national dataset of civil wars, I show that elections as part of a peace agreement, when overseen by third party observers, significantly reduce chances of a return to conflict. This evidence offers conditions that help reduce the likelihood of conflict, and has major ramifications for both scholars and policy-makers.

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  • Wagner, Matthew L, 2016. "The civil war puzzle revisited: The use of post-conflict elections as part of peace agreements," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-24.
  • Handle: RePEc:gok:ijdcv1:v:6:y:2016:i:1:p:1-24

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Janina Isabel Steinert & Sonja Grimm, 2015. "Too good to be true? United Nations peacebuilding and the democratization of war-torn states," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(5), pages 513-535, November.
    2. Fearon, James D., 1995. "Rationalist explanations for war," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 379-414, July.
    3. Dylan Balch-Lindsay & Andrew J. Enterline & Kyle A. Joyce, 2008. "Third-Party Intervention and the Civil War Process," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 45(3), pages 345-363, May.
    4. Tavits, Margit, 2008. "Party Systems in the Making: The Emergence and Success of New Parties in New Democracies," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(1), pages 113-133, January.
    5. Hyde, Susan D. & Marinov, Nikolay, 2014. "Information and Self-Enforcing Democracy: The Role of International Election Observation," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 329-359, April.
    6. Leonard, Wantchekon, 2004. "The Paradox of “Warlord†Democracy: A Theoretical Investigation," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 17-33, February.
    7. Powell, Robert, 2006. "War as a Commitment Problem," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 169-203, January.
    8. Tatu Vanhanen, 2000. "A New Dataset for Measuring Democracy, 1810-1998," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 37(2), pages 251-265, March.
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    Civil War; Elections; Peacekeeping; Democratization;


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