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Third-Party Intervention and the Civil War Process

Author

Listed:
  • Dylan Balch-Lindsay

    (Department of Political Science, University of New Mexico)

  • Andrew J. Enterline

    (Department of Political Science, University of North Texas)

  • Kyle A. Joyce

    (Department of Political Science, Pennsylvania State University, kjoyce@psu.edu)

Abstract

What effect do third parties have on the evolution of civil wars? The authors argue that intervention by third parties is central to the civil war process, a process that is characterized by the duration of hostilities and the type of outcome. The authors examine empirically the effect of third-party intervention into civil wars during the period 1816—1997, using the event history framework of competing risks. From the perspective of competing risks, as a civil war endures, it is at risk of experiencing a transition to one of three civil war outcomes in our sample: military victory by the government, military victory by the opposition group, and negotiated settlement. The competing risks approach provides considerably better leverage on the dynamic qualities of civil wars and, in particular, the influence of interventions by third parties. The analysis suggests that third-party interventions can be decisive in the evolution of civil wars and that third-party interventions have a different effect on the duration than different civil war outcomes. The results show that third-party intervention decreases the time until the supported group achieves military victory. Furthermore, third-party interventions, on both the government and opposition sides, increase the time until a negotiated settlement.

Suggested Citation

  • Dylan Balch-Lindsay & Andrew J. Enterline & Kyle A. Joyce, 2008. "Third-Party Intervention and the Civil War Process," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 45(3), pages 345-363, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:45:y:2008:i:3:p:345-363
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    Cited by:

    1. Dominic Rohner, 2018. "Success Factors for Peace Treaties: A Review of Theory and Evidence," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 18.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    2. Ibrahim Ahmed Elbadawi & Raimundo Soto, 2015. "Resource rents, institutions, and violent civil conflicts," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 89-113, February.
    3. Alessandra Conte & Silvia Migali, 2019. "The role of conflict and organized violence in international forced migration," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(14), pages 393-424.
    4. Wagner, Matthew L, 2016. "The civil war puzzle revisited: The use of post-conflict elections as part of peace agreements," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-24.
    5. David Carment & Martin Fischer, 2011. "Three’s Company? Towards an Understanding of Third-Party Intervention Effectiveness," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 22, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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