Does Black’s Hypothesis for Output Variability Hold for Mexico?
Using two data series, namely GDP and the index of industrial production, we study the relationship between output variability and the growth rate of output. Ng-Perron unit root test shows that the growth rate of GDP is non-stationary but the growth rate of industrial output is stationary. Thus, we use the ARCH-M model for the monthly data of industrial output. A number of specifications (with and without a dummy variable) are used. In all cases, the results show that output variability has a negative but insignificant effect on the growth rate of output.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Matthew Rafferty, 2005. "The Effects of Expected and Unexpected Volatility on Long-Run Growth: Evidence from 18 Developed Economies," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 582-591, January.
- Pindyck, Robert, 1989.
"Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
294, The World Bank.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1990. "Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment," Working papers 3137-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1990. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 3307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994.
"Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997.
"Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
- Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Alfonso Mendoza, 2004. "Output Variability and Economic Growth: the Japanese Case," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 353-363, October.
- Martin, Philippe & Ann Rogers, Carol, 2000.
"Long-term growth and short-term economic instability,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 359-381, February.
- Martin, Philippe & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1995. "Long-Term Growth and Short-Term Economic Instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 1281, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
- MacKinnon, James G, 1996.
"Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
- James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Terence C. Mills, 2000. "Business Cycle Volatility and Economic Growth: A Reassessment," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 23(1), pages 107-116, October.
- Joseph Macri & Dipendra Sinha, 2000. "Output variability and economic growth: The case of Australia," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 275-282, September.
- Joseph Dejuan & Simon Gurr, 2004. "On the link between volatility and growth: evidence from Canadian Provinces," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 279-282.
- Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.