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Insecure old-age security

  • Jellal, Mohamed
  • wolff, François charles

In this paper, we examine the old-age security hypothesis according to which parents rear children because they expect the latter to care for them in their later years. In developing countries where there are no perfect capital markets, children are usually viewed as a potential source of income and as a time-related support in old age. However, investing in children remains risky. By focusing on uncertainty about the parental consumption during old age, we show that there exists a precautionary motive for the demand for children so that fertility of prudent parents is expected to increase.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38644/1/MPRA_paper_38644.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 38644.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38644
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  1. Barmby, T & Cigno, A, 1990. "A Sequential Probability Model of Fertility Patterns," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 31-51, April.
  2. Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio C., 1996. "Jointly determined saving and fertility behaviour: Theory, and estimates for Germany, Italy, UK and USA," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1589, November.
  3. Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio Camillo, 1992. "The Effects of Financial Markets and Social Security on Saving and Fertility Behaviour in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 319-41.
  4. Jellal, Mohamed & Wolff, Francois-Charles, 2000. "Shaping intergenerational relationships: the demonstration effect," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 255-261, September.
  5. Appelbaum, Elie & Katz, Eliakim, 1991. "The Demand for Children in the Absence of Capital and Risk Markets: A Portfolio Approach," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 292-304, April.
  6. David E. Wildasin, 1989. "Non-Neutrallity of Debt with Endogenous Fertility," Discussion Paper Serie A 241, University of Bonn, Germany.
  7. Rosati, Furio Camillo, 1996. "Social security in a non-altruistic model with uncertainty and endogenous fertility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 283-294, May.
  8. Jensen, Eric R, 1990. "An Econometric Analysis of the Old-Age Security Motive for Childbearing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(4), pages 953-68, November.
  9. Mark Kazarosian, 1993. "Precautionary Savings- A Panel Study," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 247, Boston College Department of Economics.
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