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An Econometric Analysis of the Old-Age Security Motive for Childbearing

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  • Jensen, Eric R

Abstract

A switching regression for birth interval lengths with endogenous switching is developed to test Mead Cain's contention that parents' fertility decisions arise from lexicographic preferences for old-age security. The model is estimated as a survival model using Malaysian data. Assuming that contraceptors constitute the group of parents who have attained the minimal number of children with which they feel their old-age support is secure, strong support for Cain's concept of old-age security as the principal interest of those parents who have not yet attained a sufficient number of children appears in these data. Copyright 1990 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Jensen, Eric R, 1990. "An Econometric Analysis of the Old-Age Security Motive for Childbearing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(4), pages 953-968, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:31:y:1990:i:4:p:953-68
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    Cited by:

    1. Mun Lai, 2012. "When having many children pays: a case study from Taiwan," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 323-348, January.
    2. Michele Boldrin & Larry E. Jones, 2002. "Mortality, Fertility, and Saving in a Malthusian Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(4), pages 775-814, October.
    3. Blackburn, Keith & Cipriani, Giam Pietro, 2005. "Intergenerational transfers and demographic transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 191-214, October.
    4. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2004. "The pay-as-you-go pension system as fertility insurance and an enforcement device," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1335-1357, July.
    5. Grimm, Michael, 2016. "Rainfall Risk and Fertility: Evidence from Farm Settlements during the American Demographic Transition," IZA Discussion Papers 10351, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. Uctum, Remzi, 2007. "Économétrie des modèles à changement de régimes : un essai de synthèse," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 447-482, décembre.
    7. Mohamed Jellal & Francois-Charles Wolff, 2002. "Insecure old-age security," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 54(4), pages 636-648, October.
    8. Knoblauch, Vicki, 2000. "Lexicographic orders and preference representation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 255-267, October.
    9. Alberto Basso & David Cuberes, 2013. "Fertility and Financial Development: Evidence from U.S. Counties in the 19th Century," Working Papers 2013011, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    10. KONDO Keisuke, 2015. "Does Agglomeration Discourage Fertility? Evidence from the Japanese General Social Survey 2000-2010," Discussion papers 15067, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    11. Anu Rammohan, 2000. "The Interaction of Child-labour and Schooling in Developing Countries: A Theoretical Perspective," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 85-99, December.
    12. Kudo, Yuya, 2012. "Marriage as women's old age insurance : evidence from migration and land inheritance practices in rural Tanzania," IDE Discussion Papers 368, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    13. Marek Loužek, 2007. "Pension Reform in the Czech Republic - A Contribution into the Debate," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2007(1), pages 55-69.
    14. Seebens, Holger, 2009. "The contribution of female non-farm income to poverty reduction," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51762, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1998. "The Pay-as-you-go Pension System as a Fertility Insurance and Enforcement Device," CESifo Working Paper Series 154, CESifo Group Munich.
    16. Luciano Fanti, 2012. "Endogenous labour supply, habits and aspirations," Discussion Papers 2012/144, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    17. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2012. "Public Expenditure on Health and Private Old-Age Insurance in an OLG Growth Model with Endogenous Fertility: Chaotic Dynamics Under Perfect Foresight," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 333-353, December.
    18. Anu Rammohan, 2001. "Development of financial capital markets and the role of children as economic assets," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 45-58.
    19. Knoblauch, Vicki, 2005. "Continuous lexicographic preferences," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 812-825, November.
    20. Santosh Mehrotra & Mario Biggeri, 2002. "Social Protection in the Informal Economy: Home based women workers and outsourced manufacturing in Asia," Papers inwopa02/24, Innocenti Working Papers.
    21. Morand, Olivier F, 1999. "Endogenous Fertility, Income Distribution, and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 331-349, September.
    22. Grimm, Michael, 2017. "Rainfall risk, fertility and development: Evidence from farm settlements during the American demographic transition," Ruhr Economic Papers 718, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    23. Zhao Kai, 2011. "Social Security, Differential Fertility, and the Dynamics of the Earnings Distribution," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-31, August.

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