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Co-movements Of Business Cycles In The Maghreb: Does Trade Matter?


  • Belhadj, Aam
  • Eggoh, Jude


Over the past two decades, the Maghreb Countries have initiated a liberalization process characterized by increasing trade flows and they have strengthened economic and financial linkages between their economies. In this paper, we demonstrate how co-movements of outputs would respond to this integration process. The nature of this relationship seems to be important for these countries because the decision to join an economic and monetary union would depend on how the union affects trade and co-movements. To this end, we estimate a panel model describing the effect of trade intensity on business cycles correlation over the period 1980-2005. Thereafter, to check the robustness of the results, we add many control variables commonly described in the literature. We use three estimation techniques: pooled OLS, fixed vs. random effects as well as 2SLS estimations. Our main results suggest that while trade intensity may help to harmonize business cycles in Maghreb countries, the magnitude of this harmonization is lower than for industrial countries. Moreover, intra-industry trade causes a reverse –counterintuitive- effect. Many lessons are thereby learned.

Suggested Citation

  • Belhadj, Aam & Eggoh, Jude, 2010. "Co-movements Of Business Cycles In The Maghreb: Does Trade Matter?," MPRA Paper 35778, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35778

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Lionel Fontagné & Michael Freudenberg & Guillaume Gaulier, 2006. "A Systematic Decomposition of World Trade into Horizontal and Vertical IIT," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(3), pages 459-475, October.
    2. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    3. Peridy, Nicolas, 2005. "The trade effects of the Euro-Mediterranean partnership: what are the lessons for ASEAN countries?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 125-139, February.
    4. George S. Tavlas, 2009. "Optimum-Currency-Area Paradoxes," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 536-551, August.
    5. Chrysost Bangake & Aram Belhadj & Nabil Jedlane, 2007. "Towards Maghreb Monetary Unification: What does the Theory and History Tell Us?," Post-Print halshs-00366757, HAL.
    6. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra-industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-12, January.
    7. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & De Grauwe, Paul, 2005. "Endogeneities of optimum currency areas: what brings countries sharing a single currency closer together?," Working Paper Series 468, European Central Bank.
    8. Stockman, Alan C., 1988. "Sectoral and national aggregate disturbances to industrial output in seven European countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 387-409.
    9. Lionel Fontagné & Michael Freudenberg, 1999. "Marché unique et développement des échanges," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 326(1), pages 31-52.
    10. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. "ìNew" Views on the Optimum Currency Area Theory: What is EMU Telling US?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 140, Royal Economic Society.
    11. Ben Hammouda, Hakim & Oulmane, Nassim & Bchir, Hédi & Sadni Jallab, Mustapha, 2006. "The Cost of non-Maghreb: Achieving the Gains from Economic Integration," MPRA Paper 13293, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Juan Sole & Gabriel Sensenbrenner & Amor Tahari & J. E. J. De Vrijer & Marina Moretti & Patricia D Brenner & Abdelhak S Senhadji, 2007. "Financial Sector Reforms and Prospects for Financial Integration in Maghreb Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/125, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item


    Business Cycles; Trade Intensity; Intra-Industry Trade; Maghreb;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies


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