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Identifying the Signs of Currency Speculation in Hong Kong's Linked exchange Rate

  • Li, Kui-Wai

This paper identifies the ex ante factors of currency speculation based on the experience of Hong Kong’s three episodes in 1988, 1998 and 2007. The dynamic conditional correlation models are used to study the inter-temporal interactions among the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Index futures and exchange rate difference. The logistic model is applied to study the probability of currency speculation. The empirical results indicate that unusual movements in the exchange rate difference, Hang Seng Index premium and open interest of futures contracts can be found in the period prior to and during currency speculations. In addition, the conditional correlation between stock market and exchange rate market declined sharply during the periods of currency speculation. The paper traces the disposition of the speculators.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 35279.

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Date of creation: Sep 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35279
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  2. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
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  13. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
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  15. W. N. W. Azman-Saini & Evan Lau & Zulkefly Abdul Karim, 2010. "Hedge funds, exchange rates and causality: evidence from Thailand and Malaysia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 393-397.
  16. Kumar, Mohan & Moorthy, Uma & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Predicting emerging market currency crashes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 427-454, September.
  17. John F. O. Bilson, 1979. "Recent Developments in Monetary Models of Exchange Rate Determination (Evolution récente des modèles monétaires de détermination des taux de change) (Progreso reciente en el campo de los modelos m," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(2), pages 201-223, June.
  18. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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