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A review of leading composite indicators: making a case for their use in Caribbean economies

Author Info

  • Cotrie, Gladys
  • Craigwell, Roland
  • Maurin, Alain

Abstract

In this article, three issues relating to leading composite indicators (LCI) are discussed: their importance, methods of estimation and uses by institutions worldwide. This discussion is utilised to provide lessons that could be learnt for the application of these indicators to the countries of the Caribbean. The principal message of this material is that in this geographical area, LCI would be important tools for economic decision makers to employ to forecast the future state of the economy. This option should be pursued vigorously by putting the necessary resources into developing the high frequency real sector data that is required for a successful application of the LCI methodology.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33390/1/MPRA_paper_33390.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 33390.

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Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision: 2009
Publication status: Published in Journal of Applied Econometrics and International Development 2.9(2009): pp. 145-161
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33390
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Keywords: Business cycles; Leading indicators;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
  • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
  • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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  1. Hervé Péléraux & Eric Heyer, 2004. "Un indicateur de croissance infra-annuelle pour l'économie française," Post-Print hal-01019986, HAL.
  2. Yanjun Liu & Carl Gaudreault & Robert Lamy, . "New Concident, Leading and Recession Indexes for the Canadian Economy: An Application of the Stock and Watson Methodology," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 2003-12, Department of Finance Canada.
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 95-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Vincent Bodart & Fati Shadman-Mehta, 2004. "Prévoir les retournements conjoncturels en Belgique : les nouveaux indicateurs de l’IRES," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 26, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  5. Burkart, Oliver & Coudert, Virginie, 2002. "Leading indicators of currency crises for emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 107-133, June.
  6. Gladys COTRIE & Roland CRAIGWELL & Alain MAURIN, 2009. "Estimating Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Indicators For Barbados," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).
  7. Joannes Mongardini & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2003. "Estimating Indexes of Coincident and Leading Indicators; An Application to Jordan," IMF Working Papers 03/170, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:

  1. Gladys COTRIE & Roland CRAIGWELL & Alain MAURIN, 2009. "Estimating Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Indicators For Barbados," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).

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