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Estimating Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Indicators For Barbados

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  • Gladys COTRIE
  • Roland CRAIGWELL
  • Alain MAURIN

Abstract

In recent times, a number of studies have focused on describing and modelling the business cycles of developing countries. However, to date very few of the small economies of the Caribbean have been the subject of this type of empirical application. In this regard, the current paper's contribution is to conduct an analysis of the cyclical fluctuations in Barbados, focusing on the prediction of such fluctuations. To this end, the authors construct coincident and leading indicators for the Barbadian economy, using the Stock and Watson (1989, 1991) method, as well as another alternative procedure (Mongardini and Saadi-Sedik, 2003) derived thereof. The results obtained show that the proposed indicators possess excellent properties and accurately reflect the reference cycle of the Barbadian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Gladys COTRIE & Roland CRAIGWELL & Alain MAURIN, 2009. "Estimating Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Indicators For Barbados," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:9:y:2009:i:2_12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
    2. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 251-285, May.
    3. Cotrie, Gladys & Craigwell, Roland & Maurin, Alain, 2009. "A review of leading composite indicators: making a case for their use in Caribbean economies," MPRA Paper 33390, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    4. Burkart, Oliver & Coudert, Virginie, 2002. "Leading indicators of currency crises for emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 107-133, June.
    5. Michela Nardo & Michaela Saisana & Andrea Saltelli & Stefano Tarantola & Anders Hoffman & Enrico Giovannini, 2005. "Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators: Methodology and User Guide," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2005/3, OECD Publishing.
    6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2001. "Extracting, Using and Analysing Cyclical Information," MPRA Paper 15, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cotrie, Gladys & Craigwell, Roland & Maurin, Alain, 2009. "A review of leading composite indicators: making a case for their use in Caribbean economies," MPRA Paper 33390, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    2. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Puah, Chin-Hong & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012. "Forecasting malaysian business cycle movement: empirical evidence from composite leading indicator," MPRA Paper 36649, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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