Determinants of undergraduate GPAs in China: college entrance examination scores, high school achievement, and admission route

Each year, millions of Chinese high school students sit the National College Entrance Examination (CEE). For the majority of students, the CEE score is the single determinant in whether they gain admission into a college and to what college they enter. Despite the significance of the exam, there is very little empirical evidence on the predictive power of the CEE with respect to students’ later academic performance in college. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether and how well the CEE score predicts college academic success. We also consider high school achievement and admission route in predicting college grades. We find that the CEE total and subject test scores predict undergraduate GPAs for all four years in college. High school achievement is also a significant predictor of college grades. Moreover, students’ academic performance in college varies significantly with regard to their admission route.