Rapid loan growth in Russia : A lending boom or a permanent financial deepening?
In this paper we look at a number of factors surrounding the sharp increase in lending in Russia. First of all, we discuss the sources of loan growth and factors that have triggered rapid loan growth. Second, we consider the loan portfolio quality, singling out Sberbank and other state banks which could be prone to directed lending and could be subject to lax supervision. Third, we address the potential problem associated with the high exposure of banks to large borrowers and related parties, and concentration of loans to the oil and gas industry. Our analysis shows that rapid loan growth was preceded by strong economic growth and is accompanied by increased investments in fixed assets. In 2003, loan growth was further boosted by the rise in cross-border lending and international bond issuances. The short-term nature of this foreign debt is one of the sources of vulnerability for the Russian banks. The quality and the structure of the loan portfolio has improved significantly in the last years, but the real risk may be hidden because of the negative real interest rates, high growth of loans and lack of transparency. Future loan growth will mainly depend on the success of the current banking reform.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2004|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001.
"Lending Booms: Latin America and the World,"
ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION,
ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 47-100, January.
- Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Landerretche, Oscar & Valdés, Rodrigo, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," CEPR Discussion Papers 2811, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," NBER Working Papers 8249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cull, Robert, 1998. "How deposit insurance affects financial depth : a cross-country analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1875, The World Bank.
- Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 537-558, June.
- Ross Levine & Sara Zervos, "undated". "Stock markets, banks and economic growth ," CERF Discussion Paper Series 95-11, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1996. "Stock markets, banks, and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1690, The World Bank.
- Cottarelli, Carlo & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Vladkova-Hollar, Ivanna, 2005. "Early birds, late risers, and sleeping beauties: Bank credit growth to the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 83-104, January.
- Ivanna Vladkova Hollar & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Carlo Cottarelli, 2003. "Early Birds, Late Risers, and Sleeping Beauties; Bank Credit Growth to the Private Sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," IMF Working Papers 03/213, International Monetary Fund.
- Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises; Evidence From Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/106, International Monetary Fund.
- R. T.A. de Haas & I. P.P van Lelyveld, 2004. "Foreign Bank Penetration and Private Sector Credit in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 3(2), pages 125-151, August.
- Ralph de Haas & Iman van Lelyveld, 2002. "Foreign Bank Penetration and Private Sector Credit in Central and Eastern Europe," International Finance 0209002, EconWPA.
- R.T.A. de Haas & I.P.P. van Lelyveld, 2003. "Foreign Bank Penetration and Private Sector Credit in Central and Eastern Europe," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 91, Netherlands Central Bank.
- repec:hrv:faseco:30747188 is not listed on IDEAS
- Beck, Thorsten & Lundberg, Mattias & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2006. "Financial intermediary development and growth volatility: Do intermediaries dampen or magnify shocks?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1146-1167, November.
- Beck,Thorsten*Lundberg, Mattias*Majnoni, Giovann, 2001. "Financial intermediary development and growth volatility : do intermediaries dampen or magnify shocks?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2707, The World Bank.
- Aditya Narain & Pau Rabanal & Steen Byskov, 2003. "Prudential Issues in Less Diversified Economies," IMF Working Papers 03/198, International Monetary Fund.
- Lubin, David, 2002. "Bank Lending to Emerging Markets: Crossing the Border," WIDER Working Paper Series 061, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Barth, James R. & Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Bank regulation and supervision: what works best?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 205-248, April.
- Barth, James R. & Caprio Jr., Gerard & Levine, Ross, 2001. "Bank regulation and supervision : what works best?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2725, The World Bank.
- James R. Barth & Gerard Caprio, Jr. & Ross Levine, 2002. "Bank Regulation and Supervision: What Works Best?," NBER Working Papers 9323, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- World Bank, 2002. "Building Trust : Developing the Russian Financial Sector," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15225.
- Abdur Chowdhury, 2003. "Banking reform in russia: winds of change?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 89-103.
- William Tompson, 2004. "What kind of 'financial safety net' for Russia? Russian Banking reform in comparative context," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 115-135. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20997. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.