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Estimating Price Elasticities of Supply for Cotton: A Structural Time-Series Approach

Listed author(s):
  • Shepherd, Ben

The Kalman Filter is used to estimate a structural time-series model of cotton supply for 30 countries and 16 aggregated regions. Estimated short run supply elasticities with respect to the world price are presented for all 46 countries and regions. While they are broadly within the expected range in light of previous work, they indicate extensive cross-country and regional heterogeneity, as well as considerable parameter uncertainty in some cases. Finally, some proposals are made for incorporating both the core estimates and their sampling distributions into applied equilibrium models.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1252/1/MPRA_paper_1252.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 1252.

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Date of creation: Aug 2006
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1252
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  1. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
  2. Keeney, Roman & Thomas Hertel, 2005. "GTAP-AGR : A Framework for Assessing the Implications of Multilateral Changes in Agricultural Policies," GTAP Technical Papers 1869, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
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  4. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
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  6. repec:rus:hseeco:123040 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Murali Adhikari & Krishna Paudel & Jack Houston & James Bukenya, 2008. "Assessing the impacts of stochastic trend in crop acreage supply response model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 295-302.
  8. Baffes, John & Gohou, Gaston, 2005. "The co-movement between cotton and polyester prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3534, The World Bank.
  9. Gillson, I & Poulton, Colin & Balcombe, Kelvin & Page, S, 2004. "Understanding the impact of Cotton Subsidies on developing countries," MPRA Paper 15373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Stephen Tokarick, 2003. "Measuring the Impact of Distortions in Agricultural Trade in Partial and General Equilibrium," IMF Working Papers 03/110, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Peter Hooper & Karen H. Johnson & Jaime R. Marquez, 1998. "Trade elasticities for G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 609, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. D'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
  13. Ben Shepherd, 2005. "The Impact of US Subsidies on the World Cotton Market: A Reassessment," International Trade 0511012, EconWPA.
  14. Askari, Hossein & Cummings, John Thomas, 1977. "Estimating Agricultural Supply Response with the Nerlove Model: A Survey," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(2), pages 257-292, June.
  15. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
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