IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/124752.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Nato expansion: An open door policy?

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Lijun
  • Karavias, Yiannis
  • Banerjee, Anindya

Abstract

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine shook the world’s security architecture and ultimately led to Finland and Sweden officially joining NATO in 2023 and 2024 respectively. A key question which arises then, is what determines NATO membership? Is there an open door policy or are accession decisions based on geopolitics? This paper develops a predictive model assessing the probability of joining NATO for several European countries. The model is based on logis- tic regression and shows that the most important determinants of NATO membership are past geopolitics such as EU and USSR memberships. Less important factors include the strength of economy, political stability and geography. Using a sample from 1979 to 2020, the model predicts that Sweden and Finland were highly likely to join NATO, while the probability of Ukraine’s accession is low.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Lijun & Karavias, Yiannis & Banerjee, Anindya, 2025. "Nato expansion: An open door policy?," MPRA Paper 124752, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 May 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:124752
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/124752/1/MPRA_paper_124752.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bing Li & Yixuan Ge & Yi‐min Lin, 2024. "Military alliance and international trade: Evidence from NATO enlargement," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 930-956, March.
    2. Murdoch, James C., 1995. "Military alliances: Theory and empirics," Handbook of Defense Economics, in: Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler (ed.), Handbook of Defense Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5, pages 89-108, Elsevier.
    3. Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler, 2001. "Economics of Alliances: The Lessons for Collective Action," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 869-896, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Justin George & Todd Sandler, 2022. "NATO defense demand, free riding, and the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2022," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 49(4), pages 783-806, December.
    2. Justin George & Todd Sandler, 2021. "EU Demand for Defense, 1990–2019: A Strategic Spatial Approach," Games, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, February.
    3. George, Justin & Sandler, Todd, 2018. "Demand for military spending in NATO, 1968–2015: A spatial panel approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 222-236.
    4. Andreas Löschel & Dirk Rübbelke, 2014. "On the Voluntary Provision of International Public Goods," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 81(322), pages 195-204, April.
    5. Thomas Plümper & Eric Neumayer, 2015. "Free-riding in alliances: Testing an old theory with a new method," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(3), pages 247-268, July.
    6. Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu & Sandler, Todd, 2021. "Counterterrorism policy: Spillovers, regime solidity, and corner solutions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 811-827.
    7. Yukari Iwanami, 2024. "Asymmetric burden-sharing and the restraining and deterrence effects of alliances," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 61(5), pages 711-725, September.
    8. Bayer, Péter & Herings, P. Jean-Jacques & Peeters, Ronald, 2021. "Farsighted manipulation and exploitation in networks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    9. Burnett, Kimberly M., 2006. "Introductions of Invasive Species: Failure of the Weaker Link," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 21-28, April.
    10. Garcia-Alonso, Maria D.C. & Levine, Paul & Smith, Ron, 2016. "Military aid, direct intervention and counterterrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 112-135.
    11. Vítor Gaspar, 2010. "Financial Stability and Policy Cooperation," Working Papers o201001, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    12. Ghislain Dutheil de la Rochère & Jean-Michel Josselin & Yvon Rocaboy, 2011. "The role of aggregation technologies in the provision of supranational public goods: A reconsideration of NATO’s strategies," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 85-103, March.
    13. Juan M. C. Larrosa, 2016. "Arms build-up and arms race in optimal economic growth," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 12(2), pages 167-182, June.
    14. van Dalen, Hendrik P., 2008. "Designing Global Collective Action in Population and HIV/AIDS Programs, 1983-2002: Has Anything Changed?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 362-382, March.
    15. Arce M., Daniel G. & Sandler, Todd, 2003. "Health-promoting alliances," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 355-375, June.
    16. Sergio Currarini, & Elena Fumagalli & Fabrizio Panebianco, 2012. "Games on Networks: Direct Complements and Indirect Substitutes," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/04, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    17. Akerman, Anders & Seim, Anna Larsson, 2014. "The global arms trade network 1950–2007," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 535-551.
    18. Dan Kovenock & Brian Roberson, 2012. "Coalitional Colonel Blotto Games with Application to the Economics of Alliances," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 14(4), pages 653-676, August.
    19. Ismael Sanz & Francisco Javier Velázquez, 2002. "Determinants of the Composition of Government Expenditure by Functions," European Economy Group Working Papers 13, European Economy Group.
    20. Raechelle Mascarenhas & Todd Sandler, 2006. "Do donors cooperatively fund foreign aid?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 337-357, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    NATO; geopolitics; militaryspending; economicgrowth; paneldata; logistic regression.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:124752. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.