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Nato expansion: An open door policy?

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Lijun
  • Karavias, Yiannis
  • Banerjee, Anindya

Abstract

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine shook the world’s security architecture and ultimately led to Finland and Sweden officially joining NATO in 2023 and 2024 respectively. A key question which arises then, is what determines NATO membership? Is there an open door policy or are accession decisions based on geopolitics? This paper develops a predictive model assessing the probability of joining NATO for several European countries. The model is based on logis- tic regression and shows that the most important determinants of NATO membership are past geopolitics such as EU and USSR memberships. Less important factors include the strength of economy, political stability and geography. Using a sample from 1979 to 2020, the model predicts that Sweden and Finland were highly likely to join NATO, while the probability of Ukraine’s accession is low.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Lijun & Karavias, Yiannis & Banerjee, Anindya, 2025. "Nato expansion: An open door policy?," MPRA Paper 124752, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 May 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:124752
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler, 2001. "Economics of Alliances: The Lessons for Collective Action," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 869-896, September.
    2. Bing Li & Yixuan Ge & Yi‐min Lin, 2024. "Military alliance and international trade: Evidence from NATO enlargement," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 930-956, March.
    3. Murdoch, James C., 1995. "Military alliances: Theory and empirics," Handbook of Defense Economics, in: Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler (ed.), Handbook of Defense Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5, pages 89-108, Elsevier.
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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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