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The determinants of defense burden sharing in the European Union from 1980 to 2024

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Balestra

    (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, & International Peace Science Center (IPSC), Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy)

  • Raul Caruso

    (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, & International Peace Science Center (IPSC), Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy)

  • Sara Mombelli

    (Sapienza University of Rome, Italy - International Peace Science Center (IPSC), Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy)

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of defense burden sharing among EU member states from 1980 to 2024. Using a dataset that combines established factors with historical and institutional indicators, we analyze how structural features shape national share of total EU military expenditure. Fixed-effects panel regressions, complemented by fractional logit and probit models, reveal that economic features, colonial legacy, constitutional complexity, and technological sophistication systematically influence defense contributions among non-leader states. In addition, we show that France, Germany and the United Kingdom behave as structural leaders whose commitments remain high and largely insensitive to domestic conditions, thereby masking key relationships in full-sample estimations. The results provide a comprehensive account of the drivers of defense effort and highlight the asymmetric foundations of collective defense in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Balestra & Raul Caruso & Sara Mombelli, 2025. "The determinants of defense burden sharing in the European Union from 1980 to 2024," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Politica Economica dipe0054, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ctc:serie5:dipe0054
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    File URL: http://dipartimenti.unicatt.it/politica-economica-DIPE0054.pdf
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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