Un modelo de coyuntura para la actividad industrial boliviana[A conjuncture model for bolivian industry activity]

The objective of this study is to evaluate and quantify the behavior of the industrial sector in Bolivia, identifying its trend and cyclical components, and projecting its behavior into the future. Due to the limited information available, the physical volume index of the manufacturing industry (IQVF), which has quarterly data since 1982, has been chosen as a short-term indicator. The methodology used is based on the following aspects. First, the series (in logarithms and seasonally adjusted by the X-11 method) is based on the specification of the ARIMA model that best fits the data, according to the Akaike and Schwarz criteria. Subsequently, the index is projected for four periods at the front of the sample, evaluating the predictive capacity of the model through the Theil inequality coefficient (U). Finally, the IQVF series is disaggregated into its trend and cyclical components, using the Hodrick and Prescott and Band Pass filters. The decomposition of the series allows us to clearly identify two long-term states in its underlying evolution. The first, which occurred in the eighties, marks an accelerated growth of the index, and the second, which occurs in the nineties, shows a relative stagnation in its development, with no prospect of improvement for 1999. The diagnosis of the industrial indicator as described above does not show the causes or determinants of this behavior; however, it does show the need to develop policies that will effectively stimulate the sector. To this end, it is advisable to study in more detail the main factors affecting the manufacturing industry, in order to stimulate those that are positive, such as physical and human capital, and to combat those that are negative, such as smuggling.