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Model and distribution uncertainty in multivariate GARCH estimation: a Monte Carlo analysis

  • Rossi, Eduardo
  • Spazzini, Filippo

Multivariate GARCH models are in principle able to accommodate the features of the dynamic conditional correlations processes, although with the drawback, when the number of financial returns series considered increases, that the parameterizations entail too many parameters.In general, the interaction between model parametrization of the second conditional moment and the conditional density of asset returns adopted in the estimation determines the fitting of such models to the observed dynamics of the data. This paper aims to evaluate the interactions between conditional second moment specifications and probability distributions adopted in the likelihood computation, in forecasting volatilities and covolatilities. We measure the relative performances of alternative conditional second moment and probability distributions specifications by means of Monte Carlo simulations, using both statistical and financial forecasting loss functions.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 12260.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12260
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  9. Kevin Sheppard & Andrew J. Patton, 2008. "Evaluating Volatility and Correlation Forecasts," Economics Series Working Papers 2008fe22, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  10. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique & Calzolari, Giorgio, 2003. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference in Multivariate Conditionally Heteroscedastic Dynamic Regression Models with Student t Innovations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 532-46, October.
  11. Danielsson, Jon, 1998. "Multivariate stochastic volatility models: Estimation and a comparison with VGARCH models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 155-173, June.
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