IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/10755.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Business cycle transmission between the USA and Indonesia: A vector error correction model

Author

Listed:
  • Munadi, Ernawati
  • Safa, Mohammad Samaun

Abstract

There are several mechanisms that can account for short-run business cycle transmission. International trade is probably the major vehicle, and it forms a direct channel through which income and price shocks may be transmitted. Capital flows provide a second mechanism which is most likely to be responsible for the transmission of interest rate, monetary and exchange rate shocks. The study attempted to focus on the income shocks transmitted between a developed country and a developing country such as the USA and Indonesia. The transmission of industrial production, prices and interest rate shocks between the two countries have been examined along with an objective to test this proposition focusing on Indonesia. The study also considered the USA-Indonesia proposition by estimating a vector error correction model. The findings of the study show that there is no co-integration between U.S. and Indonesian industrial production. Therefore it does not appear that the USA drives Indonesian business cycle fluctuations and vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Munadi, Ernawati & Safa, Mohammad Samaun, 2005. "Business cycle transmission between the USA and Indonesia: A vector error correction model," MPRA Paper 10755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10755
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10755/1/MPRA_paper_10755.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ambler, Steve & Cardia, Emanuela & Zimmermann, Christian, 2002. "International transmission of the business cycle in a multi-sector model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 273-300, February.
    2. Kearney, Colm, 2000. "The determination and international transmission of stock market volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 31-52.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1998. "Sources and propagation of international output cycles: Common shocks or transmission?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 133-166, October.
    5. Selover, David D., 1999. "International Interdependence and Business Cycle Transmission in ASEAN," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 230-253, September.
    6. Selover, David D., 1997. "Business cycle transmission between the United States and Japan: A vector error correction approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 385-411, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Selin Sayek & David D. Selover, 2002. "International Interdependence and Business Cycle Transmission between Turkey and the European Union," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(2), pages 206-238, October.
    2. Selover, David D., 2004. "International co-movements and business cycle transmission between Korea and Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 57-83, March.
    3. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2014. "Transmission of the debt crisis: From EU15 to USA or vice versa? A GVAR approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-132.
    4. Voronkova, Svitlana, 2004. "Equity market integration in Central European emerging markets: A cointegration analysis with shifting regimes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 633-647.
    5. Yin-Wong Cheung & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Output dynamics of the G7 countries--stochastic trends and cyclical movements," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(18), pages 2239-2247.
    6. Alejandro Cunat & Marco Maffezzoli, 2004. "Hecksher-Ohlin Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(3), pages 555-585, July.
    7. Christophe Tavéra & Fabien Rondeau, 2005. "Interdépendance macro-économique des pays européens et propagation des chocs conjoncturels d'activité," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 169(3), pages 25-39.
    8. Uluc Aysun, 2016. "Searching for the source of macroeconomic integration across advanced economies," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 316-339.
    9. Mark Meyer & Peter Winker*, 2005. "Using HP Filtered Data for Econometric Analysis: Some Evidence from Monte Carlo Simulations," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 89(3), pages 303-320, August.
    10. Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar, 2010. "Estimating International Transmission of Shocks Using GDP Forecasts: India and Its Trading Partners," Discussion Papers 10-06, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    11. Maswana, Jean-Claude, 2010. "Will China’s Recovery Affect Africa’s Prospects for Economic Growth?," Working Papers 19, JICA Research Institute.
    12. Renee Fry, 2002. "International SVAR Factor Modelling," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 109, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    13. Bekhet, Hussain Ali & Matar, Ali, 2013. "Co-integration and causality analysis between stock market prices and their determinates in Jordan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 508-514.
    14. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Vouldis, Angelos T., 2013. "Business cycles and economic crisis in Greece (1960–2011): A long run equilibrium analysis in the Eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 804-816.
    15. Herwartz, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2006. "Modelling the Fisher hypothesis: World wide evidence," Economics Working Papers 2006-04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    16. Bilal Mehmood & Syed Hassan Raza & Mahwish Rana & Huma Sohaib & Muhammad Azhar Khan, 2014. "Triangular Relationship between Energy Consumption, Price Index and National Income in Asian Countries: A Pooled Mean Group Approach in Presence of Structural Breaks," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 610-620.
    17. Tyrväinen, Timo, 1991. "Unions, wages and employment: evidence from Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/1991, Bank of Finland.
    18. Anatoly A. Peresetsky & Ruslan I. Yakubov, 2017. "Autocorrelation in an unobservable global trend: does it help to forecast market returns?," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1/2), pages 152-169.
    19. Santos, João & Domingos, Tiago & Sousa, Tânia & St. Aubyn, Miguel, 2016. "Does a small cost share reflect a negligible role for energy in economic production? Testing for aggregate production functions including capital, labor, and useful exergy through a cointegration-base," MPRA Paper 70850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Law, Siong Hook & Tan, Hui & baharumshah, ahmad, 1999. "Financial Liberalization in ASEAN and the Fisher Hypothesis," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 33, pages 65-86.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; co-integration; error correction model; business transmission;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10755. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.