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Interdépendance macroéconomique des pays européens et propagation des chocs conjoncturels d'activité

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  • Fabien Rondeau

    (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Christophe Tavéra

    (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

[eng] We evaluate the influence of international goods trade on the transmission of macroeconomic shocks among European countries. We model business-cycle interdependence as a constrained VAR process. Empirical results show a close link between shock transmission and bilateral trade shares. Adiffusion indicator corroborates the dominating influence of the largest economies such as France and Germany within the shock contagion process. Synchronization between European business cycles should increase if the European Monetary Union leads to an increase in intra-European trade. [fre] Cet article analyse le rôle du commerce international de biens en tant que canal de transmission des chocs macro-économiques conjoncturels entre les pays européens. Les interdépendances des conjonctures européennes sont modélisées à partir d’un processus VAR contraint. Les fonctions de réponses font apparaître que la capacité de diffusion des chocs conjoncturels d’un pays est clairement reliée aux parts commerciales de ce pays avec les autres pays partenaires. La construction d’un indicateur de diffusion des chocs conforte l’idée du rôle prépondérant des grandes économies telles que la France et l’Allemagne. Enfin, la synchronisation des mouvements conjoncturels des PIB européens devrait s’accroître si l’Union Monétaire conduit à une augmentation des échanges commerciaux intra-européens.
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Suggested Citation

  • Fabien Rondeau & Christophe Tavéra, 2005. "Interdépendance macroéconomique des pays européens et propagation des chocs conjoncturels d'activité," Post-Print halshs-00078081, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00078081
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00078081
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin Forbes, 2005. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: a Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 356-375, May.
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    12. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1998. "Sources and propagation of international output cycles: Common shocks or transmission?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 133-166, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabien Rondeau, 2006. "Pattern of trade and European economic integration : an unexpected relation," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 200614, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.

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