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Interdépendance macroéconomique des pays européens et propagation des chocs conjoncturels d'activité

Author

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  • Fabien Rondeau
  • Christophe Tavéra

Abstract

We evaluate the influence of international goods trade on the transmission of macroeconomic shocks among European countries. We model business-cycle interdependence as a constrained VAR process. Empirical results show a close link between shock transmissionandbilateraltradeshares.Adiffusionindicatorcorroboratesthedominatinginfluenceofthelargesteconomiessuchas France and Germany within the shock contagion process. Synchronization between European business cycles should increase if the European Monetary Union leads to an increase in intra-European trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabien Rondeau & Christophe Tavéra, 2005. "Interdépendance macroéconomique des pays européens et propagation des chocs conjoncturels d'activité," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(3), pages 25-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_169_0025
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    2. Fabien Rondeau, 2006. "Pattern of trade and European economic integration : an unexpected relation," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes & University of Caen) 200614, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes, University of Caen and CNRS.

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