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Interdépendance macroéconomique des pays européens et propagation des chocs conjoncturels d'activité

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  • Fabien Rondeau
  • Christophe Tavéra

Abstract

We evaluate the influence of international goods trade on the transmission of macroeconomic shocks among European countries. We model business-cycle interdependence as a constrained VAR process. Empirical results show a close link between shock transmissionandbilateraltradeshares.Adiffusionindicatorcorroboratesthedominatinginfluenceofthelargesteconomiessuchas France and Germany within the shock contagion process. Synchronization between European business cycles should increase if the European Monetary Union leads to an increase in intra-European trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabien Rondeau & Christophe Tavéra, 2005. "Interdépendance macroéconomique des pays européens et propagation des chocs conjoncturels d'activité," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(3), pages 25-39.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_169_0025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Giuliodori, Massimo & Beetsma, Roel, 2004. "What are the spill-overs from fiscal shocks in Europe? An empirical analysis," Working Paper Series 325, European Central Bank.
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    7. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 57-62, May.
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    11. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1998. "Sources and propagation of international output cycles: Common shocks or transmission?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 133-166, October.
    12. Gerlach, H M Stefan, 1988. "World Business Cycles under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 621-632, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabien Rondeau, 2006. "Pattern of trade and European economic integration : an unexpected relation," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 200614, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.

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    Keywords

    trade; shock transmission; diffusion effects;

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