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Pattern of trade and European economic integration : an unexpected relation

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  • Fabien Rondeau

    (CREM - CNRS)

Abstract

In this article, the degree of integration between European countries is linked to the evolution of the pattern of trade. Evolution of the long-run sensitivity between European outputs is estimated by recursive Fully-Modifed Ordinary Least Squares (FM-OLS) and compared to a recursive index of intra-industry trade. Significant correlations are found between integration and intra-industry trade share. Interestingly, correlations have not all the same sign: positive for one group of countries and negative for others. The explanatory variable seems to be the initial intra-industry trade share. In the last section, a Hansen test is computed and confirms a threshold effect of the pattern of trade on economic integration. Finally, the development of the intra-industry trade due to the creation of the European Monetary Union has a positive effect on integration for some countries but also a negative effect on integration for other European countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabien Rondeau, 2006. "Pattern of trade and European economic integration : an unexpected relation," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 200614, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
  • Handle: RePEc:tut:cremwp:200614
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    File URL: https://crem-doc.univ-rennes1.fr/wp/2006/ie-200614.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "International R&D spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 859-887, May.
    2. Kang Hao & Inder, Brett, 1996. "Diagnostic test for structural change in cointegrated regression models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 179-187, February.
    3. Lichtenberg, Frank R. & Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, Bruno v., 1998. "International R&D spillovers: A comment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(8), pages 1483-1491, September.
    4. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    5. Hurlin, C. & MB.P. N'Diaye, P., 1998. "La methode d'estimation des moindres carres modifies ou fully modified," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 98.26, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    6. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    7. Finger, J M, 1975. "Trade Overlap and Intra-Industry Trade," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(4), pages 581-589, December.
    8. Christophe Tavéra & Fabien Rondeau, 2005. "Interdépendance macro-économique des pays européens et propagation des chocs conjoncturels d'activité," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 169(3), pages 25-39.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; Growth; Intra-industry trade; Integration;

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration

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