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Paving the Way for an Economic Crisis with High Leverage and Currency Mismatches: 2018-19 Crisis in Turkey

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  • Ozatay, Fatih

Abstract

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis monetary policies in advanced economies caused a surge in cross-border lending to emerging market economies (EMEs). Policymakers of EMEs criticized those policies on the grounds that they pave the way for financial imbalances in EMEs and called for international policy coordination. Up to mid-2018 leverage of banks and foreign currency exposure of nonfinancial corporates increased sharply in Turkey. Under these conditions, a shock that causes a stop in capital flows can trigger crisis in EMEs. The Turkish economy was hit by several external shocks and entered a recession in the third quarter of 2018. This study aims at analyzing the role of financial vulnerabilities and domestic policies in Turkey’s 2018-19 crisis and draw policy lessons. We argue that, notwithstanding complaints regarding lack of international policy coordination, domestic policy mistakes played an important role in paving the way for the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozatay, Fatih, 2020. "Paving the Way for an Economic Crisis with High Leverage and Currency Mismatches: 2018-19 Crisis in Turkey," MPRA Paper 104951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:104951
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crisis; cross-border lending; currency mismatches; leverage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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