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Nonlinear Dynamics in Welfare and the Evolution of World Inequality

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  • Davide Fiaschi
  • Marzia Romanelli

Abstract

We propose a methodology to measure countries' welfare based on the lifetime utility of individuals and apply it to a large sample of countries. In the period 1960-2000 welfare inequality across countries appears stable as the result of increasing inequality in per capita GDP and decreasing inequality in life expectancy. However, the estimated distribution dynamics of welfare points out the emergence of three clusters of countries in 2000: one composed by low-income and low-life expectancy countries (mainly sub-Saharan countries); one by low-income but medium life expectancy countries (most of the highly populated Asian and Latin American countries); and, finally, the last one by high-income and high-life expectancy countries (almost all OECD countries). Such tendencies to polarisation are expected to strengthen in the future. In terms of the world population distribution, from 1960 to 2000 welfare inequality has been decreasing as the result of the falling inequality of both per capita GDP and life expectancy; this fall is mostly explained by the outstanding performance of the highly populated countries, mainly China and India. However, the decreasing trend is expected to be reverted (at most stabilise) in the future. Finally, the estimated distribution dynamics of welfare shows the emergence of two clusters of population, already detected in the distribution of 2000; such polarisation dynamics is expected to further intensify in the future, with the possible emergence of a cluster of populations from sub-Saharan countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Fiaschi & Marzia Romanelli, 2009. "Nonlinear Dynamics in Welfare and the Evolution of World Inequality," Discussion Papers 2009/81, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:pie:dsedps:2009/81
    Note: ISSN 2039-1854
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    Cited by:

    1. Davide Fiaschi & Andrea Mario Lavezzi & Angela Parenti, 2009. "Counterfactual Distribution Dynamics across European Regions," Discussion Papers 2009/85, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Davide Fiaschi & Andrea Mario Lavezzi & Angela Parenti, 2013. "On the Determinants of Distribution Dynamics," Discussion Papers 2013/165, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Mahmoud A. El-Gamal & Deockhyun Ryu, 2013. "Nonstationarity and Stochastic Stability of Relative Income Clubs," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 59(4), pages 756-775, December.
    4. Davide Fiaschi & Lisa Gianmoena & Angela Parenti, 2015. "Spatial Clubs in European Regions," Discussion Papers 2015/196, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Irene Brunetti & Davide Fiaschi & Lisa Gianmoena & Angela Parenti, 2017. "Volatility in European regions," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(4), pages 697-720, November.
    6. Fiaschi, Davide & Gianmoena, Lisa & Parenti, Angela, 2018. "Spatial club dynamics in European regions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 115-130.
    7. Davide Fiaschi & Imre Kondor & Matteo Marsili & Valerio Volpati, 2014. "The Interrupted Power Law and the Size of Shadow Banking," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(4), pages 1-8, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    distribution of welfare; nonparametric methods; polarisation; distribution dynamics; inequality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • D30 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - General
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

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