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The cost of uncertain life span

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  • Ryan Edwards

Abstract

Much uncertainty surrounds the length of human life. The standard deviation in adult life span is about 15 years in the USA, and theory and evidence suggest that it is costly. I calibrate a utility-theoretic model that shows that 1 year in standard deviation is worth about half a life year. Differences in variance exacerbate health inequalities between and among rich and poor countries. Accounting for the cost of life-span variance appears to amplify recently discovered patterns of convergence in world average human well-being because the component of variance due to infant mortality has exhibited even more convergence than life expectancy. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

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  • Ryan Edwards, 2013. "The cost of uncertain life span," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1485-1522, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:26:y:2013:i:4:p:1485-1522
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-012-0405-0
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    2. David Canning, 2012. "Progress in Health around the World," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(12), pages 1784-1798, December.
    3. Joseph T. Lariscy & Claudia Nau & Glenn Firebaugh & Robert A. Hummer, 2016. "Hispanic-White Differences in Lifespan Variability in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(1), pages 215-239, February.
    4. Patrick Meyer & Gregory Ponthiere, 2020. "Human lifetime entropy in a historical perspective (1750–2014)," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(1), pages 129-167, January.
    5. Hippolyte d'Albis & Loesse Jacques Esso & Héctor Pifarré I Arolas, 2012. "Mortality Convergence Across High-Income Countries : An Econometric Approach," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00755682, HAL.
    6. Da Costa, Shaun, 2023. "Estimating the welfare gains from anti-retroviral therapy in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    7. Antoine Bozio & Guy Laroque & Cormac O’Dea, 2017. "Discount rate heterogeneity among older households: a puzzle?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 647-680, April.
    8. Caliendo, Frank N. & Gorry, Aspen & Slavov, Sita, 2020. "Survival ambiguity and welfare," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 20-42.
    9. Christopher W. Kulp & Michael Kurtz & Charles Hunt & Matthew Velardi, 2023. "The distribution of wealth: an agent-based approach to examine the effect of estate taxation, skill inheritance, and the Carnegie Effect," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 18(2), pages 397-415, April.
    10. Shripad Tuljapurkar & Ryan Edwards, 2011. "Variance in death and its implications for modeling and forecasting mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 24(21), pages 497-526.
    11. Charles I. Jones & Peter J. Klenow, 2016. "Beyond GDP? Welfare across Countries and Time," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(9), pages 2426-2457, September.
    12. Pablo Garcia-Sanchez & Olivier Pierrard, 2023. "Uncertain Lifetime, Health Investment And Welfare," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2023020, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    13. Iñaki Permanyer & Jeroen Spijker & Amand Blanes & Elisenda Renteria, 2018. "Longevity and Lifespan Variation by Educational Attainment in Spain: 1960–2015," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(6), pages 2045-2070, December.
    14. Milevsky, Moshe A., 2020. "Swimming with wealthy sharks: longevity, volatility and the value of risk pooling," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 217-246, April.
    15. Isaac Sasson, 2016. "Trends in Life Expectancy and Lifespan Variation by Educational Attainment: United States, 1990–2010," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(2), pages 269-293, April.
    16. Brigitte Dormont & Anne-Laure Samson & Marc Fleurbaey & Stéphane Luchini & Erik Schokkaert, 2018. "Individual Uncertainty About Longevity," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(5), pages 1829-1854, October.
    17. Ryan D. Edwards, 2010. "Trends in World Inequality in Life Span Since 1970," NBER Working Papers 16088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Duncan Gillespie & Meredith Trotter & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 2014. "Divergence in Age Patterns of Mortality Change Drives International Divergence in Lifespan Inequality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(3), pages 1003-1017, June.
    19. Rob Clark & Kara Snawder, 2020. "A Cross-National Analysis of Lifespan Inequality, 1950–2015: Examining the Distribution of Mortality Within Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 148(3), pages 705-732, April.
    20. Glenn Firebaugh & Francesco Acciai & Aggie Noah & Christopher Prather & Claudia Nau, 2014. "Why Lifespans Are More Variable Among Blacks Than Among Whites in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(6), pages 2025-2045, December.
    21. Alyson van Raalte & Pekka Martikainen & Mikko Myrskylä, 2014. "Lifespan Variation by Occupational Class: Compression or Stagnation Over Time?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 73-95, February.
    22. Aburto, José Manuel & Kristensen, Frederikke Frehr & Sharp, Paul, 2021. "Black-white disparities during an epidemic: Life expectancy and lifespan disparity in the US, 1980–2000," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    23. David Canning, 2007. "Valuing Lives Equally and Welfare Economics," PGDA Working Papers 2707, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    24. Iñaki Permanyer & Nathalie Scholl, 2019. "Global trends in lifespan inequality: 1950-2015," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(5), pages 1-19, May.
    25. Johannes Schoder & Peter Zweifel, 2011. "Flat-of-the-curve medicine: a new perspective on the production of health," Health Economics Review, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-10, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Health inequality; Population health; Convergence; I10; J17; O11;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J17 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Value of Life; Foregone Income
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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