IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1309.2130.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Interrupted Power Law and The Size of Shadow Banking

Author

Listed:
  • Davide Fiaschi
  • Imre Kondor
  • Matteo Marsili
  • Valerio Volpati

Abstract

Using public data (Forbes Global 2000) we show that the asset sizes for the largest global firms follow a Pareto distribution in an intermediate range, that is ``interrupted'' by a sharp cut-off in its upper tail, where it is totally dominated by financial firms. This flattening of the distribution contrasts with a large body of empirical literature which finds a Pareto distribution for firm sizes both across countries and over time. Pareto distributions are generally traced back to a mechanism of proportional random growth, based on a regime of constant returns to scale. This makes our findings of an ``interrupted'' Pareto distribution all the more puzzling, because we provide evidence that financial firms in our sample should operate in such a regime. We claim that the missing mass from the upper tail of the asset size distribution is a consequence of shadow banking activity and that it provides an (upper) estimate of the size of the shadow banking system. This estimate -- which we propose as a shadow banking index -- compares well with estimates of the Financial Stability Board until 2009, but it shows a sharper rise in shadow banking activity after 2010. Finally, we propose a proportional random growth model that reproduces the observed distribution, thereby providing a quantitative estimate of the intensity of shadow banking activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Fiaschi & Imre Kondor & Matteo Marsili & Valerio Volpati, 2013. "The Interrupted Power Law and The Size of Shadow Banking," Papers 1309.2130, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1309.2130
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1309.2130
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Malevergne, Y. & Saichev, A. & Sornette, D., 2013. "Zipf's law and maximum sustainable growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1195-1212.
    2. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Marc Mezard, 2000. "Wealth condensation in a simple model of economy," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500026, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    3. Daniel Covitz & Nellie Liang & Tobias Adrian, 2015. "Financial Stability Monitoring," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 357-395, December.
    4. Fujiwara, Yoshi, 2004. "Zipf law in firms bankruptcy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(1), pages 219-230.
    5. Xavier Gabaix, 2009. "Power Laws in Economics and Finance," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 255-294, May.
    6. Diego A. Restrepo-Tobón & Subal C. Kumbhakar & Kai Sun, 2013. "Are U.S. Commercial Banks Too Big?," Documentos de Trabajo CIEF 010943, Universidad EAFIT.
    7. Tobias Adrian & Adam B. Ashcraft & Hayley Boesky & Zoltan Pozsar, 2013. "Shadow banking," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-16.
      • Tobias Adrian & Adam B. Ashcraft & Hayley Boesky & Zoltan Pozsar, 2010. "Shadow banking," Staff Reports 458, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2012. "Do Large Banks Have Lower Costs? New Estimates of Returns to Scale for U.S. Banks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 171-199, February.
    9. Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe & Mézard, Marc, 2000. "Wealth condensation in a simple model of economy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 282(3), pages 536-545.
    10. Davide Fiaschi & Marzia Romanelli, 2009. "Nonlinear Dynamics in Welfare and the Evolution of World Inequality," Discussion Papers 2009/81, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    11. Andrew G. Haldane & Vasileios Madouros, 2012. "The dog and the frisbee," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 109-159.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. León, Carlos & Machado, Clara & Sarmiento, Miguel, 2018. "Identifying central bank liquidity super-spreaders in interbank funds networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 75-92.
    2. Carlos León, 2014. "Scale-free tails in Colombian financial indexes: A primer," Borradores de Economia 812, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Davide Fiaschi & Imre Kondor & Matteo Marsili & Valerio Volpati, 2016. "The missing assets and the size of Shadow Banking: an update," Papers 1611.02760, arXiv.org.
    4. Adrian, Tobias & Ashcraft, Adam & Breuer, Peter & Cetorelli, Nicola, 2018. "A Review of Shadow Banking," CEPR Discussion Papers 13363, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Tobias Adrian & Adam B. Ashcraft & Nicola Cetorelli, 2013. "Shadow bank monitoring," Staff Reports 638, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Gianfranco Battisti, 2014. "SHADOW BANKING - A Geographical Interpretation," ERSA conference papers ersa14p642, European Regional Science Association.
    7. Carlos Serrano-Cinca & Begoña Gutiérrez-Nieto & Luz López-Palacios, 2015. "Determinants of Default in P2P Lending," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(10), pages 1-22, October.
    8. Leon Rincon, C.E., 2015. "Financial stability from a network perspective," Other publications TiSEM bb2e4e44-e842-45c6-a946-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kapeller, Jakob & Leitch, Stuart & Wildauer, Rafael, 2021. "A European wealth tax for a fair and green recovery," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 31926, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    2. Smerlak, Matteo, 2016. "Thermodynamics of inequalities: From precariousness to economic stratification," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 441(C), pages 40-50.
    3. Z. Liu & J. G. Holden & R. A. Serota, 2016. "Probability Density Of Response Times And Neurophysiology Of Cognition," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(04n05), pages 1-17, June.
    4. Ikeda, Yuichi & Aoyama, Hideaki & Iyetomi, Hiroshi & Fujiwara, Yoshi & Souma, Wataru & Kaizoji, Taisei, 2007. "Response of firm agent network to exogenous shock," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 138-148.
    5. Kaldasch, Joachim, 2014. "Evolutionary model of the bank size distribution," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-16.
    6. Willis, Geoff, 2011. "Why money trickles up – wealth & income distributions," MPRA Paper 30851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Liu, Z. & Serota, R.A., 2017. "Correlation and relaxation times for a stochastic process with a fat-tailed steady-state distribution," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 474(C), pages 301-311.
    8. Düring, B. & Toscani, G., 2007. "Hydrodynamics from kinetic models of conservative economies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 384(2), pages 493-506.
    9. Hernando Quevedo & María N. Quevedo, 2016. "Income distribution in the Colombian economy from an econophysics perspective," Revista Cuadernos de Economía, Universidad Nacional de Colombia -FCE - CID, vol. 35(69), pages 691-707, April.
    10. Chong, Carsten & Klüppelberg, Claudia, 2019. "Partial mean field limits in heterogeneous networks," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 129(12), pages 4998-5036.
    11. Christian Schluter & Mark Trede, 2019. "Size distributions reconsidered," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(6), pages 695-710, July.
    12. Stojkoski, Viktor & Karbevski, Marko & Utkovski, Zoran & Basnarkov, Lasko & Kocarev, Ljupco, 2021. "Evolution of cooperation in networked heterogeneous fluctuating environments," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 572(C).
    13. Xavier Gabaix & Jean‐Michel Lasry & Pierre‐Louis Lions & Benjamin Moll, 2016. "The Dynamics of Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 2071-2111, November.
    14. Anirban Chakraborti & Ioane Muni Toke & Marco Patriarca & Frédéric Abergel, 2011. "Econophysics review: II. Agent-based models," Post-Print hal-00621059, HAL.
    15. Venkatasubramanian, Venkat & Luo, Yu & Sethuraman, Jay, 2015. "How much inequality in income is fair? A microeconomic game theoretic perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 435(C), pages 120-138.
    16. E. Samanidou & E. Zschischang & D. Stauffer & T. Lux, 2001. "Microscopic Models of Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0110354, arXiv.org.
    17. Kočišová, J. & Horváth, D. & Brutovský, B., 2009. "The efficiency of individual optimization in the conditions of competitive growth," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(17), pages 3585-3592.
    18. T. Kämpke & R. Pestel & F.J. Radermacher, 2003. "A Computational Concept for Normative Equity," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 129-163, March.
    19. Nicolas Bouleau & Christophe Chorro, 2015. "The impact of randomness on the distribution of wealth: Some economic aspects of the Wright-Fisher diffusion process," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15024, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    20. Kapeller, Jakob & Leitch, Stuart & Wildauer, Rafael, 2021. "A European wealth tax for a fair and green recovery," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 31442, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1309.2130. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.