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The Wane of Command: Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizations

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  • Anouk S. Rigterink

Abstract

This paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders, and thereby undermines control within terrorist organizations, affects terrorist attacks. The pa¬per exploits a natural experiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) ‘hitting’ and ‘missing’ terrorist leaders in Pakistan. Results suggest that ter¬rorist groups increase the number of attacks they commit after a drone ‘hit’ on their leader, compared to after a ‘miss’. This increase amounts to 29 terrorist attacks (43%) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike. Game theory provides sev¬eral explanations for the observed effect. Additional analysis of heterogenous effects across groups, and the impact of drone hits on the timing, type and target of attacks, attacks by affiliated terrorist groups, infighting and group splintering, indicates that aggravated problems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results better than alternative theoretical mechanisms.

Suggested Citation

  • Anouk S. Rigterink, 2019. "The Wane of Command: Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizations," OxCarre Working Papers 218, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:218
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    File URL: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:5bc8e33f-bc4e-46aa-b864-6498e188e575
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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