Fuel riots - definition, evidence and policy implications for a new type of energy-related conflict

This paper defines ‘fuel riots’ as a distinct type of energy-related conflict. The paper provides the first database for fuel riots and explores their social, economic and environmental drivers. Focussing upon refined fuel commodities, the analysis demonstrates a link between fuel riots and rising international fuel prices in countries characterised by weak state capacity and deficient governance, fuel scarcity and poor economic performance. We suggest a potential causal pathway for fuel riots: when international fuel prices spike, net fuel-importing countries bear higher costs and if these societies are politically fragile, the likelihood of fuel riots is high. Countries with high GDP per capita can absorb the increase and maintain subsidies, therefore avoiding upheavals, as opposed to poorer societies where fuel riots are more likely. Our findings demonstrate the role of state fragility and socio-economic conditions in enabling conflict, and will inform policy in identifying fertile ground for fuel riots, i.e. those societies most likely to be affected by increases in fossil fuel prices due to fuel scarcity and climate action (e.g. carbon taxes). We propose that policies aimed at controlling international prices are key to prevent fuel riots. Long-term strategies require phasing out fuel subsidies with inclusive and equitable processes.