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Fuel riots - definition, evidence and policy implications for a new type of energy-related conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Natalini, Davide
  • Bravo, Giangiacomo

    (LInnaeus University)

  • Newman, Edward

Abstract

This paper defines ‘fuel riots’ as a distinct type of energy-related conflict. The paper provides the first database for fuel riots and explores their social, economic and environmental drivers. Focussing upon refined fuel commodities, the analysis demonstrates a link between fuel riots and rising international fuel prices in countries characterised by weak state capacity and deficient governance, fuel scarcity and poor economic performance. We suggest a potential causal pathway for fuel riots: when international fuel prices spike, net fuel-importing countries bear higher costs and if these societies are politically fragile, the likelihood of fuel riots is high. Countries with high GDP per capita can absorb the increase and maintain subsidies, therefore avoiding upheavals, as opposed to poorer societies where fuel riots are more likely. Our findings demonstrate the role of state fragility and socio-economic conditions in enabling conflict, and will inform policy in identifying fertile ground for fuel riots, i.e. those societies most likely to be affected by increases in fossil fuel prices due to fuel scarcity and climate action (e.g. carbon taxes). We propose that policies aimed at controlling international prices are key to prevent fuel riots. Long-term strategies require phasing out fuel subsidies with inclusive and equitable processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Natalini, Davide & Bravo, Giangiacomo & Newman, Edward, 2020. "Fuel riots - definition, evidence and policy implications for a new type of energy-related conflict," SocArXiv p83jr, Center for Open Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:p83jr
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/p83jr
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. McCulloch, Neil & Natalini, Davide & Hossain, Naomi & Justino, Patricia, 2022. "An exploration of the association between fuel subsidies and fuel riots," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    2. von Uexkull, Nina & Rød, Espen Geelmuyden & Svensson, Isak, 2024. "Fueling protest? Climate change mitigation, fuel prices and protest onset," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    3. Larry Hughes & Moniek de Jong, 2021. "The Risks of Global Heating to Energy Systems and Energy Security," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-19, September.
    4. Ioannis Dokas & Georgios Oikonomou & Minas Panagiotidis & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2023. "Macroeconomic and Uncertainty Shocks’ Effects on Energy Prices: A Comprehensive Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-35, February.
    5. Mireille Chiroleu-Assouline, 2022. "Rendre acceptable la nécessaire taxation du carbone. Quelles pistes pour la France ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 15-53.
    6. Matallah, Siham & Boudaoud, Souhila & Matallah, Amal & Ferhaoui, Mustapha, 2023. "The role of fossil fuel subsidies in preventing a jump-start on the transition to renewable energy: Empirical evidence from Algeria," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    7. Gasim, Anwar A. & Agnolucci, Paolo & Ekins, Paul & De Lipsis, Vincenzo, 2023. "Modeling final energy demand and the impacts of energy price reform in Saudi Arabia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    8. Voytenkov, Valentin & Demidova, Olga, 2023. "Impact of COVID-19 on household consumption in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 72, pages 73-99.

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