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Quantitative Assessment of Political Fragility Indices and Food Prices as Indicators of Food Riots in Countries

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  • Davide Natalini

    (Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, East Road, Cambridge CB1-1PT, UK
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Aled Wynne Jones

    (Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, East Road, Cambridge CB1-1PT, UK
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Giangiacomo Bravo

    (Department of Social Studies, Linnaeus University, Universitetsplatsen 1, 35195Växjö, Sweden
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

The impact of resources on social unrest is of increasing interest to political leaders, business and civil society. Recent events have highlighted that (lack of) access to critical resources, including food, energy and water, can, in certain circumstances, lead to violent demonstrations. In this paper, we assess a number of political fragility indices to see whether they are good indicators of propensity to food riots. We found that the most accurate is the Political Instability and Absence of Violence Indicator of the Worldwide Governance Indicators by the World Bank. We compute a likelihood of experiencing a food riot for each quartile of this index. We found that the self-sufficiency of food does not seem to affect the likelihood of the occurrence of food riots, but that the level of political stability of a country does have a role. In addition, we identify a monthly and annual threshold for the Food and Agriculture Organisation Food Price Index, above which food riots in fragile states are more likely to occur.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Natalini & Aled Wynne Jones & Giangiacomo Bravo, 2015. "Quantitative Assessment of Political Fragility Indices and Food Prices as Indicators of Food Riots in Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-26, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:7:y:2015:i:4:p:4360-4385:d:48145
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Torres, Magui Moreno & Anderson, Michael, 2004. "Fragile States: Defining Difficult Environments For Poverty Reduction," PRDE Working Papers 12822, Department for International Development (DFID) (UK).
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    Cited by:

    1. Anuradha Joshi, 2023. "What makes “difficult” settings difficult? Contextual challenges for accountability," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 41(S1), March.
    2. Natalini, Davide & Bravo, Giangiacomo & Newman, Edward, 2020. "Fuel riots - definition, evidence and policy implications for a new type of energy-related conflict," SocArXiv p83jr, Center for Open Science.
    3. Natalini, Davide & Bravo, Giangiacomo & Newman, Edward, 2020. "Fuel riots: definition, evidence and policy implications for a new type of energy-related conflict," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    4. Roberto Pasqualino & Irene Monasterolo & Aled Jones, 2019. "An Integrated Global Food and Energy Security System Dynamics Model for Addressing Systemic Risk," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-20, July.
    5. Davide Natalini & Giangiacomo Bravo & Aled Wynne Jones, 2019. "Global food security and food riots – an agent-based modelling approach," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(5), pages 1153-1173, October.
    6. Aled W. Jones & Alexander Phillips, 2016. "Historic Food Production Shocks: Quantifying the Extremes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-10, April.
    7. Aled Jones & Sarah Bridle & Katherine Denby & Riaz Bhunnoo & Daniel Morton & Lucy Stanbrough & Barnaby Coupe & Vanessa Pilley & Tim Benton & Pete Falloon & Tom K. Matthews & Saher Hasnain & John S. He, 2023. "Scoping Potential Routes to UK Civil Unrest via the Food System: Results of a Structured Expert Elicitation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-21, October.
    8. Alexander F. Legwegoh & Evan D. G. Fraser & Krishna Bahadur KC & Philip Antwi-Agyei, 2015. "Do Dietary Changes Increase the Propensity of Food Riots? An Exploratory Study of Changing Consumption Patterns and the Inclination to Engage in Food-Related Protests," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(10), pages 1-21, October.
    9. Aled Jones & Bradley Hiller, 2017. "Exploring the Dynamics of Responses to Food Production Shocks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-12, June.
    10. [WEF] World Economic Forum, 2016. "The Global Risks Report 2016: 11th Edition," Working Papers id:10737, eSocialSciences.

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