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The Making of Optimal and Consistent Policy: An Implementation Theory Framework for Monetary Policy

  • Huiping Yuan

    ()

    (Department of Finance, Xiamen University)

  • Stephen M. Miller

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Nevada, Las Vegas)

This paper shows that optimal policy and consistent policy outcomes require the use of control-theory and game-theory solution techniques. While optimal policy and consistent policy often produce different outcomes even in a one-period model, we analyze consistent policy and its outcome in a simple model, finding that the cause of the inconsistency with optimal policy traces to inconsistent targets in the social loss function. As a result, the social loss function cannot serve as a direct loss function for the central bank. Accordingly, we employ implementation theory to design a central bank loss function (mechanism design) with consistent targets, while the social loss function serves as a social welfare criterion. That is, with the correct mechanism design for the central bank loss function, optimal policy and consistent policy become identical. In other words, optimal policy proves implementable (consistent).

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File URL: http://web.unlv.edu/projects/RePEc/pdf/0910.pdf
File Function: First version, 2008
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0910.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nlv:wpaper:0910
Contact details of provider: Phone: (702) 895-3776
Fax: (702) 895-1354
Web page: http://business.unlv.edu/econ/

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  1. Huiping Yuan & Stephen M. Miller & Langnan Chen, 2009. "The Optimality and Controllability of Monetary Policy through Delegation with Consistent Targets," Working Papers 0909, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  2. Jackson, Matthew O., 1999. "A Crash Course in Implementation Theory," Working Papers 1076, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  3. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
  4. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-67, March.
  5. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
  6. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1995. "Optimal Inflation Targets, `Conservative' Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts," NBER Working Papers 5251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
  8. Kreps, David M & Wilson, Robert, 1982. "Sequential Equilibria," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 863-94, July.
  9. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  10. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
  11. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1998. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," CFS Working Paper Series 1998/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  12. Kydland, Finn, 1977. "Equilibrium solutions in dynamic dominant-player models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 307-324, August.
  13. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1978. "On the Time Consistency of Optimal Policy in a Monetary Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1411-28, November.
  14. Lohmann, Susanne, 1992. "Optimal Commitment in Monetary Policy: Credibility versus Flexibility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 273-86, March.
  15. Huiping Yuan & Stephen M. Miller & Langnan Chen, 2006. "The Making of Optimal and Consistent Policy: An Analytical Framework for Monetary Models," Working papers 2006-05, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2009.
  16. Georgios E. Chortareas & Stephen M. Miller, 2000. "Monetary Policy Delegation, Contract Costs, and Contract Targets," Working papers 2000-01, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  17. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
  18. Leininger, Wolfgang, 1985. "Rawls' Maximin Criterion and Time-Consistency: Further Results," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 505-13, July.
  19. David Backus & John Driffill, 1984. "Inflation and Reputation," Working Papers 560, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  20. Dasgupta, Partha, 1974. "On some alternative criteria for justice between generations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 405-423, November.
  21. Rodriguez, Alvaro, 1981. "Rawls' Maximin Criterion and Time Consistency: A Generalization," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(4), pages 599-605, October.
  22. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1993. "Designing institutions for monetary stability," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 53-84, December.
  23. Pollak, Robert A, 1979. "Bergson-Samuelson Social Welfare Functions and the Theory of Social Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 73-90, February.
  24. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1978. "Some Notes on Time Inconsistency and Rawls' Maximin Criterion," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 97-102, February.
  25. V. V. Chari & Patrick J Kehoe, 1998. "Sustainable Plans," Levine's Working Paper Archive 600, David K. Levine.
  26. V.V. Chari, 1988. "Time consistency and optimal policy design," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 17-31.
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