IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/8331.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Effects of Price and Access Laws on Teenage Smoking Initiation: A National Longitudinal Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • John A. Tauras
  • Patrick M. O'Malley
  • Lloyd D. Johnston

Abstract

Over the past three decades a significant amount of economic research has established that increasing cigarette prices reduces cigarette smoking among both adults and adolescents. The consensus estimates for the price elasticity of adult demand from these studies fall in a narrow range of 0.3 to 0.5, suggesting that a 10% increase in the price of cigarettes would decrease adult consumption by 3%-5%. A smaller literature on youth responsiveness to cigarette prices has also emerged. A majority of these studies concluded that youth are up to three times as responsive to price as are adults. Only four econometric studies have attempted to model youth and young adult smoking initiation decisions. All four studies concluded that cigarette prices (or cigarette excise taxes) are insignificant determinants of smoking initiation. This study addresses the limitations of the previous studies on smoking initiation and examines the impact of cigarette prices and youth access laws on adolescent smoking initiation. Nationally representative longitudinal surveys of 8th and 10th graders as part of the Monitoring the Future project are employed in the analysis. State-specific prices and several measures of youth access restrictions are added to the survey data. Discrete-time hazard methods are used to model the probability of initiation. Contradicting the results of the four previous studies on smoking initiation, the results of this study clearly indicate that increases in the price of cigarettes would significantly reduce the number of adolescents who start smoking. The results are mixed with respect to youth access restrictions.

Suggested Citation

  • John A. Tauras & Patrick M. O'Malley & Lloyd D. Johnston, 2001. "Effects of Price and Access Laws on Teenage Smoking Initiation: A National Longitudinal Analysis," NBER Working Papers 8331, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8331
    Note: CH EH
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w8331.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lewit, Eugene M & Coate, Douglas & Grossman, Michael, 1981. "The Effects of Government Regulation on Teenage Smoking," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(3), pages 545-569, December.
    2. Jonathan Gruber, 2000. "Youth Smoking in the U.S.: Prices and Policies," NBER Working Papers 7506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Frank J. Chaloupka & Michael Grossman, 1996. "Price, Tobacco Control Policies and Youth Smoking," NBER Working Papers 5740, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. DeCicca, Philip & Kenkel, Donald & Mathios, Alan, 2000. "Putting Out The Fires: Will Higher Taxes Reduce Youth Smoking?," Working Papers 00-3, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Economics.
    5. Douglas, Stratford, 1998. "The Duration of the Smoking Habit," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(1), pages 49-64, January.
    6. Douglas, Stratford & Hariharan, Govind, 1994. "The hazard of starting smoking: Estimates from a split population duration model," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 213-230, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lisa M. Powell & Frank J. Chaloupka, 2005. "Parents, public policy, and youth smoking," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 93-112.
    2. Cawley, John & Markowitz, Sara & Tauras, John, 2004. "Lighting up and slimming down: the effects of body weight and cigarette prices on adolescent smoking initiation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 293-311, March.
    3. Maria L. Loureiro & Anna Sanz-de-Galdeano & Daniela Vuri, 2010. "Smoking Habits: Like Father, Like Son, Like Mother, Like Daughter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(6), pages 717-743, December.
    4. Hahn, Ellen J DNS, RN & Rayens, Mary Kay PhD & Chaloupka, Frank J. PhD & Okoli, Chizimuzo T.C. BSN, RN & Yang, Jun MS, 2002. "Projected Smoking-Related Deaths Among U.S. Youth: A 2000 Update," University of California at San Francisco, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education qt8j85j2ct, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, UC San Francisco.
    5. Tauras, John A., 2004. "Public policy and smoking cessation among young adults in the United States," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 321-332, June.
    6. Brett Katzman & Sara Markowitz & Kerry Anne McGeary, 2002. "The Impact of Lending, Borrowing, and Anti-Smoking Policies on Cigarette Consumption by Teens," NBER Working Papers 8844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Yanyun He & Ce Shang & Frank J Chaloupka, 2018. "The association between cigarette affordability and consumption: An update," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(12), pages 1-14, December.
    8. Marti, Joachim, 2012. "A best–worst scaling survey of adolescents' level of concern for health and non-health consequences of smoking," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 87-97.
    9. Levy, David T. & Hyland, Andrew & Higbee, Cheryl & Remer, Lillian & Compton, Christine, 2007. "The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence in California: Results from the California Tobacco Policy Simulation Model," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 167-185, July.
    10. Ryoko Morozumi, 2006. "The impact of smoke-free workplace policies on smoking behaviour in Japan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 549-555.
    11. G. Guindon, 2014. "The impact of tobacco prices on smoking onset in Vietnam: duration analyses of retrospective data," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(1), pages 19-39, January.
    12. John P. Pierce & Todd P. Gilmer & Lora Lee & Elizabeth A. Gilpin & Joy de Beyer & Karen Messer, 2005. "Tobacco industry price‐subsidizing promotions may overcome the downward pressure of higher prices on initiation of regular smoking," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(10), pages 1061-1071, October.
    13. Arzhenovskiy Sergey, 2005. "Socioeconomic determinants of smoking in contemporary Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 05-12e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    14. Layte, Richard & Russell, Helen & McCoy, Selina, 2002. "The Economics and Marketing of Tobacco: An Overview of the Existing Published Evidence," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS46, June.
    15. M. Christopher Auld, 2005. "Causal effect of early initiation on adolescent smoking patterns," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 709-734, August.
    16. Elena Raptou & Konstadinos Mattas & Constantinos Katrakilidis, 2009. "Investigating Smoker's Profile: The Role of Psychosocial Characteristics and the Effectiveness of Tobacco Policy Tools," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 603-638, April.
    17. Ferrer, Rebecca A. & Orehek, Edward & Scheier, Michael F. & O'Connell, Mary E., 2018. "Cigarette tax rates, behavioral disengagement, and quit ratios among daily smokers," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 13-21.
    18. Hammar, Henrik & Martinsson, Peter, 2001. "The Effect Of Cigarette Prices And Antismoking Policies On The Age Of Smoking Initiation," Working Papers in Economics 62, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wakefield, Melanie A PhD & Chaloupka, Frank J. PhD, 1999. "Effectiveness of Comprehensive Tobacco Control Programs in Reducing Teenage Smoking: A Review," University of California at San Francisco, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education qt46n6b9mv, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, UC San Francisco.
    2. Philip DeCicca & Donald Kenkel & Alan Mathios & Yoon‐Jeong Shin & Jae‐Young Lim, 2008. "Youth smoking, cigarette prices, and anti‐smoking sentiment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(6), pages 733-749, June.
    3. John P. Pierce & Todd P. Gilmer & Lora Lee & Elizabeth A. Gilpin & Joy de Beyer & Karen Messer, 2005. "Tobacco industry price‐subsidizing promotions may overcome the downward pressure of higher prices on initiation of regular smoking," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(10), pages 1061-1071, October.
    4. Hana Ross & Frank J. Chaloupka & Melanie Wakefield, 2006. "Youth Smoking Uptake Progress: Price and Public Policy Effects," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 355-367, Spring.
    5. Göhlmann, Silja, 2007. "The Determinants of Smoking Initiation - Empirical Evidence for Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 27, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    6. DeCicca, Philip & Kenkel, Donald & Mathios, Alan, 2000. "Putting Out The Fires: Will Higher Taxes Reduce Youth Smoking?," Working Papers 00-3, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Economics.
    7. Martin Forster & Andrew M. Jones, 2001. "The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking: Duration analysis of British data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(3), pages 517-547.
    8. Emery, Sherry & White, Martha M. & Pierce, John P., 2001. "Does cigarette price influence adolescent experimentation?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 261-270, March.
    9. Brett Katzman & Sara Markowitz & Kerry Anne McGeary, 2002. "The Impact of Lending, Borrowing, and Anti-Smoking Policies on Cigarette Consumption by Teens," NBER Working Papers 8844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Otálvaro, Susana & Gallego, Juan Miguel & Rodríguez-Lesmes, Paul, 2023. "De-normalizing smoking in urban areas: Public smoking bans and smoking prevalence," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    11. Martin Forster & Andrew M. Jones, "undated". "The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking," Discussion Papers 00/51, Department of Economics, University of York.
    12. Glied, Sherry, 2002. "Youth tobacco control: reconciling theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 117-135, January.
    13. Silja Göhlmann & Christoph M. Schmidt & Harald Tauchmann, 2010. "Smoking initiation in Germany: the role of intergenerational transmission," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 227-242, February.
    14. Göhlmann, Silja & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2008. "Smoking in Germany: Stylized Facts, Behavioral Models, and Health Policy," Ruhr Economic Papers 64, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    15. Göhlmann, Silja, 2007. "Who Smokes and How Much? - Empirical Evidence for Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 26, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    16. repec:zbw:rwirep:0064 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Elena Raptou & Konstadinos Mattas & Constantinos Katrakilidis, 2009. "Investigating Smoker's Profile: The Role of Psychosocial Characteristics and the Effectiveness of Tobacco Policy Tools," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 603-638, April.
    18. Jonathan Gruber & Jonathan Zinman, 2001. "Youth Smoking in the United States: Evidence and Implications," NBER Chapters, in: Risky Behavior among Youths: An Economic Analysis, pages 69-120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Maria L. Loureiro & Anna Sanz-de-Galdeano & Daniela Vuri, 2010. "Smoking Habits: Like Father, Like Son, Like Mother, Like Daughter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(6), pages 717-743, December.
    20. Pearl Bader & David Boisclair & Roberta Ferrence, 2011. "Effects of Tobacco Taxation and Pricing on Smoking Behavior in High Risk Populations: A Knowledge Synthesis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-22, October.
    21. Cawley, John & Markowitz, Sara & Tauras, John, 2004. "Lighting up and slimming down: the effects of body weight and cigarette prices on adolescent smoking initiation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 293-311, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8331. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.