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On the Dynamics of Trade Reform

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  • Rui Albuquerque
  • Sergio Rebelo

Abstract

The empirical evidence on trade reforms suggests that these have a surprisingly small impact on the country's industrial configuration. This industrial structure inertia is difficult to rationalize in standard trade models. This paper develops a two-sector industry dynamics model in which industrial composition inertia arises naturally. The model is then used to study the consequences of different types of trade reforms (e.g. permanent, temporary, gradual, pre-announced) on investment, employment composition, and income distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Rui Albuquerque & Sergio Rebelo, 1998. "On the Dynamics of Trade Reform," NBER Working Papers 6700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6700
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    1. Bacchetta, Philippe & Dellas, Harris, 1997. "Firm Restructuring and the Optimal Speed of Trade Reform," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 291-306, April.
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    4. Michael Mussa, 1982. "Government Policy and the Adjustment Process," NBER Chapters,in: Import Competition and Response, pages 73-122 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Albuquerque, Rui & Rebelo, Sergio, 2000. "On the dynamics of trade reform," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 21-47, June.
    6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1994. "Trade Reforms of Uncertain Duration and Real Uncertainty: A First Approximation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(4), pages 555-586, December.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Peter Wickham, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 175-213, June.
    8. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Plant-Level Adjustment and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 1-54.
    9. Currie, Janet & Harrison, Ann E, 1997. "Sharing the Costs: The Impact of Trade Reform on Capital and Labor in Morocco," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(3), pages 44-71, July.
    10. anonymous, 1990. "New Zealand economic chronology 1989," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 53, march.
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    12. Fernandez, Raquel & Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Resistance to Reform: Status Quo Bias in the Presence of Individual-Specific Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1146-1155, December.
    13. Hopenhayn, Hugo A, 1992. "Entry, Exit, and Firm Dynamics in Long Run Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1127-1150, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Mash, 1999. "The Investment Response to Imperfectly Credible Trade Liberalisation with Endogenous Probability of Reversal," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/1998-13, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Ramanarayanan, Ananth, 2017. "Imported inputs, irreversibility, and international trade dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-18.
    3. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Uribe, Martin, 2000. "Devaluation risk and the business-cycle implications of exchange-rate management," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 239-296, December.
    4. Albuquerque, Rui, 2003. "The composition of international capital flows: risk sharing through foreign direct investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 353-383, December.
    5. Alessandria, George & Delacroix, Alain, 2008. "Trade and the (dis)incentive to reform labor markets: The case of reform in the European Union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 151-166, May.
    6. Nurmi, Satu, 2004. "Employment Dynamics and Openness to Trade in Finnish Manufacturing," Discussion Papers 956, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    7. Alvaro Forteza & Rossana Patrón, 2003. "Trade Liberalisation with Costly Adjustment," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6, pages 95-125, May.
    8. Owens, Raymond E. & Sarte, Pierre-Daniel, 2002. "Analyzing firm location decisions: is public intervention justified?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 223-242, November.
    9. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 2004. "Does globalization hurt the poor?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 21-51, March.
    10. Albuquerque, Rui & Rebelo, Sergio, 2000. "On the dynamics of trade reform," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 21-47, June.
    11. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2002. "The Deaths of Manufacturing Plants," NBER Working Papers 9026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Eva de Francisco, 2005. "Limited Participation, Income Distribution and Capital-Account Liberalization: Working Paper 2005-02," Working Papers 16302, Congressional Budget Office.
    13. Mario Larch & Wolfgang Lechthaler, 2013. "Whom to send to Doha? The Short-sighted Ones!," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(4), pages 634-649, October.
    14. Wacziarg, Romain & Wallack, Jessica Seddon, 2004. "Trade liberalization and intersectoral labor movements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 411-439, December.
    15. Robert Tatum, 2005. "Sustaining imperfectly credible trade liberalization: Do the rate of tariff reduction and the degree of labour mobility matter?," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 407-435.
    16. Eva de Francisco, 2005. "Limited Participation, Income Distribution and Capital Account Liberalization," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 454, Society for Computational Economics.
    17. Greenaway, David & Gullstrand, Joakim & Kneller, Richard, 2008. "Surviving globalisation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 264-277, March.

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    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade

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