Uncertainty, Trade, and Capital Flows in Sub-Saharan Africa
In most African economies, both agricultural production and the terms- of-trade are highly uncertain. This paper re-examines the implications of such uncertainty for the optimal mix of production and trade under alternative assumptions about international capital flows. The ultimate objective is to explore the possible effects of increased financial integration on real economic activity in developing countries. In the presence of uncertainty and limited international capital flows, diversifying production -- and exports -- rather than specializing according to comparative advantage may be desirable depending on a country’s degree of risk aversion. Once international borrowing and lending becomes available, however, it may provide a more efficient mechanism for coping smoothing consumption in the face of income fluctuations than does diversifying production and exports. The ability to trade equity securities (which represent claims on uncertain future production) in world capital markets permits additional risk sharing possibilities. In some circumstances where equities trade is well- developed, production diversification completely unnecessary. That is, production and price uncertainty can be efficiently hedged through portfolio diversification instead of production diversification.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Volume (Year): 5 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 (October)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK|
Phone: +44-(0)1865 271084
Fax: 01865 267 985
Web page: http://www.jae.oupjournals.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.oup.co.uk/journals|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Anderson, James E & Riley, John G, 1976.
"International Trade with Fluctuating Prices,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 17(1), pages 76-97, February.
- Robert C. Feenstra & Tracy R. Lewis, 1991.
"Trade Adjustment Assistance and Pareto Gains From Trade,"
NBER Working Papers
3845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Feenstra, Robert C. & Lewis, Tracy R., 1994. "Trade adjustment assistance and Pareto gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 201-222, May.
- Feenstra, R.C. & Lewis, T.R., 1989. "Trade Adjustment Assistance And Pareto Gains From Trade," Papers 343, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
- Grossman, Gene M & Razin, Assaf, 1984.
"International Capital Movements under Uncertainty,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 286-306, April.
- Eaton, Jonathan, 1987.
"Public Debt Guarantees and Private Capital Flight,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 1(3), pages 377-95, May.
- Mohsin S. Khan & Nadeem Ul Haque, 1985. "Foreign Borrowing and Capital Flight: A Formal Analysis (Emprunt extÃ©rieur et Ã©vasion de capitaux: analyse mathÃ©matique) (Endeudamiento externo y fuga de capitales: Un anÃ¡lisis formal)," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(4), pages 606-628, December.
- Leamer, Edward E., 1980. "Welfare computations and the optimal staging of tariff reductions in models with adjustment costs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 21-36, February.
- Claessens, Stijn & Dooley, Michael P & Warner, Andrew, 1995.
"Portfolio Capital Flows: Hot or Cold?,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 153-74, January.
- Raveendra N. Batra, 1975. "Production Uncertainty and the Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 259-268.
- Edwards, Sebastian & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1986. "The Welfare Effects of Trade and Capital Market Liberalization," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(1), pages 141-48, February.
- Newbery, David M, 1989. "The Theory of Food Price Stabilisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(398), pages 1065-82, December.
- Cuddington, John, 1989. "Commodity Export Booms in Developing Countries," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 4(2), pages 143-65, July.
- Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
- Reinhart, Carmen & Wickham, Peter, 1994.
"Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?,"
8173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Peter Wickham, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 175-213, June.
- Peter Wickham & Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "Commodity Prices; Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Working Papers 94/7, International Monetary Fund.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Wickham, Peter, 1994. "Non-oil commodity prices: Cyclical weakness or secular decline?," MPRA Paper 13871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Alan C. Stockman & Alejandro Hernandez D., 1985.
"Exchange Controls, Capital Controls, and International Financial Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
1755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stockman, Alan C & Hernandez D, Alejandro, 1988. "Exchange Controls, Capital Controls, and International Financial Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 362-74, June.
- Cuddington, John T & Urzua, Carlos M, 1989. "Trends and Cycles in the Net Barter Terms of Trade: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 426-42, June.
- Dixit, Avinash & Rob, Rafael, 1994. "Risk-sharing, adjustment, and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 263-287, May.
- Powell, Andrew, 1991.
"Commodity and Developing Country Terms of Trade: What Does the Long Run Show?,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1485-96, November.
- Powell, A., 1989. "Commodity And Developing Country Terms Of Trade, What Does The Long Run Show?," Economics Series Working Papers 9980, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Ardeni, Pier Giorgio & Wright, Brian, 1992. "The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Reappraisal Independent of Stationarity Hypotheses," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(413), pages 803-12, July.
- Jonathan Eaton & Gene M. Grossman, 1981.
"Tariffs as Insurance: Optimal Commercial Policy When Domestic Markets Are Incomplete,"
NBER Working Papers
0797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jonathan Eaton & Gene M. Grossman, 1985. "Tariffs as Insurance: Optimal Commercial Policy When Domestic Markets Are Incomplete," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(2), pages 258-72, May.
- Robert Brandon Kahn & Adam Bennett & MarÃa Vicenta Carkovic S. & Susan M Schadler, 1993. "Recent Experiences with Surges in Capital Inflows," IMF Occasional Papers 108, International Monetary Fund.
- Pomery, John, 1984. "Uncertainty in trade models," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 419-465 Elsevier.
- Elhanan Helpman & Assaf Razin, 1978. "Uncertainty and International Trade in the Presence of Stock Markets," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 239-250.
- W. Max Corden, 1991. "Does The Current Account Matter? The Old View And The New," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 10(3), pages 1-19, 09.
- Chang, P. H. Kevin, 1991. "Export diversification and international debt under terms-of-trade uncertainty : An intertemporal approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 259-277, October.
- Guillermo A. Calvo, 1988. "Costly Trade Liberalizations: Durable Goods and Capital Mobility," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(3), pages 461-473, September.
- Anderson, James E., 1981. "The Heckscher-Ohlin and Travis-Vanek theorems under uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 239-247, May.
- Ruffin, Roy J., 1974. "International trade under uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 243-259, August.
- Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Montiel, Peter J., 1995. "The surge in capital inflows to developing countries : prospects and policy response," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1473, The World Bank.
- Kemp, Murray C & Liviatan, Nissan, 1973. "Production and Trade Patterns under Uncertainty," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 49(126), pages 215-27, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:5:y:1996:i:3:p:192-224. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.