Uncertainty, Trade, and Capital Flows in Sub-Saharan Africa
In most African economies, both agricultural production and the terms- of-trade are highly uncertain. This paper re-examines the implications of such uncertainty for the optimal mix of production and trade under alternative assumptions about international capital flows. The ultimate objective is to explore the possible effects of increased financial integration on real economic activity in developing countries. In the presence of uncertainty and limited international capital flows, diversifying production -- and exports -- rather than specializing according to comparative advantage may be desirable depending on a country’s degree of risk aversion. Once international borrowing and lending becomes available, however, it may provide a more efficient mechanism for coping smoothing consumption in the face of income fluctuations than does diversifying production and exports. The ability to trade equity securities (which represent claims on uncertain future production) in world capital markets permits additional risk sharing possibilities. In some circumstances where equities trade is well- developed, production diversification completely unnecessary. That is, production and price uncertainty can be efficiently hedged through portfolio diversification instead of production diversification.
|Date of creation:||16 Feb 1996|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||Type of Document - WordPerfect; prepared on IBM PC ; to print on HP; pages: 54 ; figures: included. Invited paper for the Plenary session of the African Economic Research Consortium's (AERC) Research Workshop on "Economic Consequences of Real and Nominal External Shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa" in Nairobi, Kenya in May 1995. GU working paper #95-01. Forthcoming in Journal of African Economies and in an AERC volume to be published by Oxford University Press.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eaton, Jonathan, 1987.
"Public Debt Guarantees and Private Capital Flight,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 1(3), pages 377-95, May.
- Gene M. Grossman & Assaf Razin, 1983.
"International Capital Movements Under Uncertainty,"
NBER Working Papers
1075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anderson, James E & Riley, John G, 1976.
"International Trade with Fluctuating Prices,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 17(1), pages 76-97, February.
- Cuddington, John, 1989. "Commodity Export Booms in Developing Countries," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 4(2), pages 143-65, July.
- Cuddington, John T & Urzua, Carlos M, 1989. "Trends and Cycles in the Net Barter Terms of Trade: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 426-42, June.
- Guillermo A. Calvo, 1988. "Costly Trade Liberalizations: Durable Goods and Capital Mobility," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(3), pages 461-473, September.
- Newbery, David M, 1989. "The Theory of Food Price Stabilisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(398), pages 1065-82, December.
- Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Montiel, Peter J., 1995. "The surge in capital inflows to developing countries : prospects and policy response," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1473, The World Bank.
- Anderson, James E., 1981. "The Heckscher-Ohlin and Travis-Vanek theorems under uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 239-247, May.
- Dixit, Avinash & Rob, Rafael, 1994. "Risk-sharing, adjustment, and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 263-287, May.
- Kemp, Murray C & Liviatan, Nissan, 1973. "Production and Trade Patterns under Uncertainty," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 49(126), pages 215-27, June.
- Robert C. Feenstra & Tracy R. Lewis, 1991.
"Trade Adjustment Assistance and Pareto Gains From Trade,"
NBER Working Papers
3845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Feenstra, Robert C. & Lewis, Tracy R., 1994. "Trade adjustment assistance and Pareto gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 201-222, May.
- Feenstra, R.C. & Lewis, T.R., 1989. "Trade Adjustment Assistance And Pareto Gains From Trade," Papers 343, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
- Jonathan Eaton & Gene M. Grossman, 1981.
"Tariffs as Insurance: Optimal Commercial Policy When Domestic Markets Are Incomplete,"
NBER Working Papers
0797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jonathan Eaton & Gene M. Grossman, 1985. "Tariffs as Insurance: Optimal Commercial Policy When Domestic Markets Are Incomplete," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(2), pages 258-72, May.
- Leamer, Edward E., 1980. "Welfare computations and the optimal staging of tariff reductions in models with adjustment costs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 21-36, February.
- Pomery, John, 1984. "Uncertainty in trade models," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 419-465 Elsevier.
- Peter Wickham & Carmen Reinhart, 1994.
"Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?,"
IMF Working Papers
94/7, International Monetary Fund.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Peter Wickham, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 175-213, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Wickham, Peter, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," MPRA Paper 8173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Wickham, Peter, 1994. "Non-oil commodity prices: Cyclical weakness or secular decline?," MPRA Paper 13871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ruffin, Roy J., 1974. "International trade under uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 243-259, August.
- Powell, Andrew, 1991.
"Commodity and Developing Country Terms of Trade: What Does the Long Run Show?,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1485-96, November.
- Powell, A., 1989. "Commodity And Developing Country Terms Of Trade, What Does The Long Run Show?," Economics Series Working Papers 9980, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Stockman, Alan C & Hernandez D, Alejandro, 1988.
"Exchange Controls, Capital Controls, and International Financial Markets,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 362-74, June.
- Alan C. Stockman & Alejandro Hernandez D., 1985. "Exchange Controls, Capital Controls, and International Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 1755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- W. Max Corden, 1991. "Does The Current Account Matter? The Old View And The New," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 10(3), pages 1-19, 09.
- Raveendra N. Batra, 1975. "Production Uncertainty and the Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 259-268.
- Classens, S. & Dooley, M.P. & Warner, A., 1995.
"Portfolio Capital Flows: Hot or Cold,"
501, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
- Chang, P. H. Kevin, 1991. "Export diversification and international debt under terms-of-trade uncertainty : An intertemporal approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 259-277, October.
- Ardeni, Pier Giorgio & Wright, Brian, 1992. "The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Reappraisal Independent of Stationarity Hypotheses," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(413), pages 803-12, July.
- Mohsin S. Khan & Nadeem Ul Haque, 1985. "Foreign Borrowing and Capital Flight: A Formal Analysis (Emprunt extÃ©rieur et Ã©vasion de capitaux: analyse mathÃ©matique) (Endeudamiento externo y fuga de capitales: Un anÃ¡lisis formal)," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(4), pages 606-628, December.
- Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
- Robert Brandon Kahn & Adam Bennett & MarÃa Vicenta Carkovic S. & Susan Schadler, 1993. "Recent Experiences with Surges in Capital Inflows," IMF Occasional Papers 108, International Monetary Fund.
- Edwards, Sebastian & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1986. "The Welfare Effects of Trade and Capital Market Liberalization," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(1), pages 141-48, February.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Elhanan Helpman & Assaf Razin, 1978. "Uncertainty and International Trade in the Presence of Stock Markets," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 239-250.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:9602002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.