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Nutrient Pollution and U.S. Agriculture: Causal Effects, Integrated Assessment, and Implications of Climate Change

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  • Konstantinos Metaxoglou
  • Aaron Smith

Abstract

We study the relationship between water nutrient pollution and U.S. agriculture using data between the early 1970s and late 2010s. We estimate a positive causal effect of corn acreage on nitrogen concentration in the country’s water bodies using alternative empirical approaches. We find that a 10% increase in corn acreage causes an increase in nitrogen concentration in water by at least 1% and show that the magnitude of the acreage effect increases with precipitation but not with extreme temperature. Based on the average streamflow of the Mississippi River at the Gulf of Mexico during this period and damages of about $16 per kilogram of nitrogen, this 1% increase in average nitrogen concentration implies an annual external cost of $800 million. We also report the results of additional integrated-assessment type of exercises aimed to inform policy makers, and we use recent climate models to project the implications of climate change on the magnitude of the estimated effects. We estimate that climate change will not materially change the relationship between corn acreage and nitrogen concentration in waterways

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  • Konstantinos Metaxoglou & Aaron Smith, 2022. "Nutrient Pollution and U.S. Agriculture: Causal Effects, Integrated Assessment, and Implications of Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 30124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30124
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    1. Ribaudo, Marc O. & Heimlich, Ralph & Claassen, Roger & Peters, Mark, 2001. "Least-cost management of nonpoint source pollution: source reduction versus interception strategies for controlling nitrogen loss in the Mississippi Basin," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 183-197, May.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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