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The Local Influence of Pioneer Investigators on Technology Adoption: Evidence from New Cancer Drugs

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  • Leila Agha
  • David Molitor

Abstract

Local opinion leaders may play a key role in easing information frictions associated with technology adoption. This paper analyzes the influence of physician investigators who lead clinical trials for new cancer drugs. By comparing diffusion patterns across 21 new cancer drugs, we separate correlated regional demand for new technology from information spillovers. Patients in the lead investigator's region are initially 36% more likely to receive the new drug, but utilization converges within four years. We also find that “superstar ” physician authors, measured by trial role or citation history, have broader influence than less prominent authors.

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  • Leila Agha & David Molitor, 2015. "The Local Influence of Pioneer Investigators on Technology Adoption: Evidence from New Cancer Drugs," NBER Working Papers 20878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20878
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    1. Sam Watson’s journal round-up for 12th March 2018
      by Sam Watson in The Academic Health Economists' Blog on 2018-03-12 12:00:42

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    Cited by:

    1. Marisa Miraldo & Carol Propper & Christiern Rose, 2020. "Identification of Peer Effects using Panel Data," Discussion Papers Series 639, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    2. Frankovic, Ivan & Kuhn, Michael & Wrzaczek, Stefan, 2020. "Medical innovation and its diffusion: Implications for economic performance and welfare," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Ghanbariamin, Roksana & Chung, Bobby W., 2020. "The effect of the National Kidney Registry on the kidney-exchange market," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    4. Méndez, Susan J. & Scott, Anthony & Zhang, Yuting, 2021. "Gender differences in physician decisions to adopt new prescription drugs," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    5. Barrenho, Eliana & Miraldo, Marisa & Propper, Carol & Walsh, Brendan, 2021. "The importance of surgeons and their peers in adoption and diffusion of innovation: An observational study of laparoscopic colectomy adoption and diffusion in England," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    6. Dranove, David & Garthwaite, Craig & Heard, Christopher & Wu, Bingxiao, 2022. "The economics of medical procedure innovation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Laura Grigolon & Laura Lasio, 2023. "Biased Beliefs and Stigma as Barriers to Treatment and Innovation Adoption," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_277v2, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    8. Bobby W. Chung & Roksana Ghanbariamin, 2025. "Participation Spillover of the National Kidney Registry," Working Papers 2025-02, University of South Florida, Department of Economics.
    9. Kevin A. Bryan & Heidi L. Williams, 2021. "Innovation: Market Failures and Public Policies," NBER Working Papers 29173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Maya M. Durvasula & Sabri Eyuboglu & David M. Ritzwoller, 2024. "Counting Clinical Trials: New Evidence on Pharmaceutical Sector Productivity," Papers 2405.08030, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2025.
    11. Leila Agha & Dan Zeltzer, 2022. "Drug Diffusion through Peer Networks: The Influence of Industry Payments," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 1-33, May.
    12. Bastian Rake & Pablo D’Este & Maureen McKelvey, 2021. "Exploring network dynamics in science: the formation of ties to knowledge translators in clinical research," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 1433-1464, November.
    13. O'Malley, A. James & Bubolz, Thomas A. & Skinner, Jonathan S., 2023. "The diffusion of health care fraud: A bipartite network analysis," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
    14. Karine Lamiraud & Stephane Lhuillery, 2016. "Endogenous Technology Adoption and Medical Costs," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(9), pages 1123-1147, September.
    15. Diego A. Comin & Jonathan S. Skinner & Douglas O. Staiger, 2022. "Overconfidence and Technology Adoption in Health Care," NBER Working Papers 30345, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. McKibbin, Rebecca, 2023. "The effect of RCTs on drug demand: Evidence from off-label cancer drugs," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    17. Wu, Bingxiao & David, Guy, 2022. "Information, relative skill, and technology abandonment," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    18. Kenneth J. Arrow & L. Kamran Bilir & Alan Sorensen, 2020. "The Impact of Information Technology on the Diffusion of New Pharmaceuticals," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 1-39, July.
    19. Sebastian Calónico & Rafael Di Tella & Juan Cruz Lopez del Valle, 2023. "The Political Economy of a “Miracle Cure”: The Case of Nebulized Ibuprofen and its Diffusion in Argentina," NBER Working Papers 31781, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Avdic, Daniel & von Hinke, Stephanie & Lagerqvist, Bo & Propper, Carol & Vikström, Johan, 2024. "Do responses to news matter? Evidence from interventional cardiology," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    21. A. James O'Malley & Thomas A. Bubolz & Jonathan S. Skinner, 2021. "The Diffusion of Health Care Fraud: A Network Analysis," NBER Working Papers 28560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Tim Brand & Eva Goetjes & Katharina Blankart, 2023. "To Seek Program Accreditation, Innovation, or Both?—Examining the Interdependencies in High-Reliability Health Care Organizations," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 75(3), pages 281-302, September.
    23. Barrenho, E.; & Miraldo, M.; & Propper, C; & Rose, C.;, 2019. "Peer and network effects in medical innovation: the case of laparoscopic surgery in the English NHS," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 19/10, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    24. Lucarelli, Claudio & Nicholson, Sean & Tilipman, Nicholas, 2022. "Price Indices and the Value of Innovation with Heterogenous Patients," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    25. Rebecca McKibbin & Bruce A. Weinberg, 2021. "Does Research Save Lives? The Local Spillovers of Biomedical Research on Mortality," NBER Working Papers 29420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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