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The Global Energy Outlook

Author

Listed:
  • Richard G. Newell
  • Stuart Iler

Abstract

We explore the principal trends that are shaping the future landscape of energy supply, demand, and trade. We take a long-term view, assessing trends on the time scale of a generation by looking 25 years into the past, taking stock of the current situation, and projecting 25 years into the future. We view these market, technology, and policy trends at a global scale, as well as assess the key regional dynamics that are substantially altering the energy scene. The shift from West to East in the locus of energy growth and the turnaround of North American gas and oil production are the most pronounced of these currents. Key uncertainties include the strength of economic and population growth in emerging economies, the stringency of future actions to reduce carbon emissions, the magnitude of unconventional natural gas and oil development in non-OPEC countries, and the stability of OPEC oil supplies.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard G. Newell & Stuart Iler, 2013. "The Global Energy Outlook," NBER Working Papers 18967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18967
    Note: EEE
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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18967.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Katherine Calvin & Shonali Pachauri & Enrica De Cian & Ioanna Mouratiadou, 2014. "The Effect of African Growth on Future Global Energy, Emissions, and Regional Development," Working Papers 2014.28, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Knaut, Andreas & Tode, Christian & Lindenberger, Dietmar & Malischek, Raimund & Paulus, Simon & Wagner, Johannes, 2016. "The reference forecast of the German energy transition—An outlook on electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 477-491.
    3. Katherine Calvin & Shonali Pachauri & Enrica Cian & Ioanna Mouratiadou, 2016. "The effect of African growth on future global energy, emissions, and regional development," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 109-125, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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