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Global Energy Outlook 2024: Peaks or Plateaus?

Author

Listed:
  • Raimi, Daniel

    (Resources for the Future)

  • Zhu, Yuqi

    (Resources for the Future)

  • Newell, Richard G.

    (Resources for the Future)

  • Prest, Brian C.

    (Resources for the Future)

Abstract

The future of the global energy system is deeply uncertain, and the choices that are made in the coming years will have enormous consequences for the future of the climate and, indeed, human civilization. To understand how our energy system is changing, each year a variety of organizations produce long-term projections that imagine a wide range of futures based on divergent visions about policies, technologies, prices, and geopolitics.Because these projections vary widely and depend heavily on their varied assumptions and methodologies, they are difficult to compare on an apples-to-apples basis. In this report, we apply a detailed harmonization process to compare 16 scenarios across eight energy outlooks published in 2023, as well as two historical data sources. Taken together, these scenarios offer a broad scope of potential changes to the energy system as envisioned by some of its most knowledgeable organizations. Table 1 lists the historical datasets, outlooks, and scenarios examined here, and additional detail is provided in Section 4.

Suggested Citation

  • Raimi, Daniel & Zhu, Yuqi & Newell, Richard G. & Prest, Brian C., 2024. "Global Energy Outlook 2024: Peaks or Plateaus?," RFF Reports 24-06, Resources for the Future.
    • Handle: RePEc:rff:report:rp-24-06
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    File URL: https://www.rff.org/documents/4422/Report_24-06.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Suyang Xue & Jiaming Na & Libin Wang & Shuangjun Wang & Xiaoxiao Xu, 2023. "The Outlook of Green Building Development in China during the “Fourteenth Five-Year Plan” Period," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-22, March.
    2. Jason C.K. Lee & Zongguo Wen, 2017. "Rare Earths from Mines to Metals: Comparing Environmental Impacts from China's Main Production Pathways," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 21(5), pages 1277-1290, October.
    3. Célestin Banza Lubaba Nkulu & Lidia Casas & Vincent Haufroid & Thierry De Putter & Nelly D. Saenen & Tony Kayembe-Kitenge & Paul Musa Obadia & Daniel Kyanika Wa Mukoma & Jean-Marie Lunda Ilunga & Tim , 2018. "Sustainability of artisanal mining of cobalt in DR Congo," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(9), pages 495-504, September.
    4. Richard G. Newell & Stuart Iler, 2013. "The Global Energy Outlook," NBER Working Papers 18967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    1. Raimi, Daniel & Whitlock, Zach, 2025. "Save It or Spend It? How New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Texas Manage Oil and Gas Revenues for the Future," RFF Reports 25-17, Resources for the Future.

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