A Century of Housing Shelter Prices: Is There a Downward Bias in the CPI?
Tenant rental shelter is by far the most important component of the CPI, because it is used as a proxy for owner-occupied housing. This paper develops a wide variety of current and historical evidence dating back to 1914 to demonstrate that the CPI rent index is biased downward for all of the last century. The CPI rises roughly 2 percent per year slower than quality-unadjusted indexes of gross rent, setting a challenge for this research of measuring the rate of quality change in rental apartments. If quality increased at a rate of 2 percent per year, the CPI was not biased downward at all, but if quality increased at a slower rate of 1 percent per year, then the CPI was biased downward at a rate of 1 percent. Our analysis of a rich set of data sources goes backward chronologically, starting with a hedonic regression analysis on a large set of panel data from the American Housing Survey (AHS) covering 1975-2003. Prior to 1975, we have large micro data files from the U. S. Census of Housing extending back to 1930. In addition to the hedonic regression data, we stitch together data on the diffusion of important quality attributes of rental units, including plumbing, heating, and electrification, over the period 1918-73. Our final piece of evidence is based on a study of quality-adjusted rents in a single local community, Evanston IL, covering the period 1925-99. Our overall conclusions are surprisingly consistent across sources and eras, that the CPI bias was roughly -1.0 percent prior to the methodological improvements in the CPI that date from the mid-1980s. Our reliance on a wide variety of methodologies and evidence on types of quality change and their importance, while leaving the outcome still uncertain, at least in our view substantially narrows the range of possibilities regarding the history of CPI bias for rental shelter over the twentieth century.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brent R. Moulton & Karin E. Moses, 1997. "Addressing the Quality Change Issue in the Consumer Price Index," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 305-366.
- Todd Sinai & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2005.
"Owner-occupied housing as a hedge against rent risk,"
05-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Todd Sinai & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2003. "Owner-Occupied Housing as a Hedge Against Rent Risk," NBER Working Papers 9462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David Genesove, 1999.
"The Nominal Rigidity of Apartment Rents,"
NBER Working Papers
7137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Gort & Jeremy Greenwood & Peter Rupert, 1998.
"Measuring the rate of technological progress in structures,"
9806, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Michael Gort & Jeremy Greenwood & Peter Rupert, 1999. "Measuring the Rate of Technological Progress in Structures," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 207-230, January.
- Gort, M. & Greenwood, J. & Rupert, P., 1998. "Measuring the Rate of Technological Progress in Structures," RCER Working Papers 457, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Stephen Sheppard, 1998.
"Hedonic Analysis of Housing Markets,"
- Randolph, William C, 1988. "Housing Depreciation and Aging Bias in the Consumer Price Index," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(3), pages 359-71, July.
- Bajari, Patrick & Benkard, C. Lanier & Krainer, John, 2004.
"House Prices and Consumer Welfare,"
1840, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
- Antonia Diaz & Maria Jose Luengo Prado, 2008.
"On the User Cost and Homeownership,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 584-613, July.
- Richard Meese & Nancy Wallace, 1991. "Nonparametric Estimation of Dynamic Hedonic Price Models and the Construction of Residential Housing Price Indices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 308-332.
- Dougherty, Ann & Van Order, Robert, 1982. "Inflation, Housing Costs, and the Consumer Price Index," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(1), pages 154-64, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11776. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.