The housing bubble and a new approach to accounting for housing in a CPI
Over the course of the recent house price bubble in the United States, the price of homes rose rapidly from 1999 Q4 to 2005 Q4 (11.3% annually as measured by the Case-Shiller index, and 8.4% annually as measured by the Federal Housing Financing Agency) but slowly as measured by owner equivalent rents (3.4%), so measured core inflation remained relatively docile during this period, since only rents are used to measure inflation for housing services in the United States. Over the last several decades, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has experimented with both rental equivalence and user cost approaches for accounting for owner occupied housing (OOH) services in the CPI. We explain the basics of these approaches, and outline the BLS experiences with using them. This assessment leads us to conclude that the time has come to try a new approach: the opportunity cost approach. We argue this approach has advantages over both the conventional rental equivalence and user cost approaches, though it embeds components of the measures for both those approaches and builds solidly on the research of Verbrugge and others at the BLS. Also, we take up empirical issues that must be faced regardless of which of the approaches discussed is adopted. We explain how the repeat-sales and various hedonic regression methods can be placed in a common framework, thereby facilitating understanding of the properties of and the tradeoffs between the methods. We also consider measurement complications that arise because the land and structure components of properties depreciate at different rates.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Randolph, William C., 1988. "Estimation of housing depreciation: Short-term quality change and long-term vintage effects," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 162-178, March.
- Heston, Alan & Nakamura, Alice O., 2009. "Questions about the equivalence of market rents and user costs for owner occupied housing," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 273-279, September.
- Hoffmann, Johannes & Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2006.
"Consumer price adjustment under the microscope: Germany in a period of low inflation,"
Working Paper Series
0652, European Central Bank.
- Hoffmann, Johannes & Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2006. "Consumer price adjustment under the microscope: Germany in a period of low inflation," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,16, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Todd Sinai & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2005.
"Owner-occupied housing as a hedge against rent risk,"
05-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Todd Sinai & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2005. "Owner-Occupied Housing as a Hedge Against Rent Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 763-789.
- Todd Sinai & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2003. "Owner-Occupied Housing as a Hedge Against Rent Risk," NBER Working Papers 9462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew Bauer & Nicholas Haltom & William B. Peterman, 2004. "Examining contributions to core consumer inflation measures," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2004-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Luci Ellis, 2010.
"The Housing Meltdown: Why Did It Happen in the United States?,"
International Real Estate Review,
Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 13(3), pages 351-394.
- Luci Ellis, 2008. "The housing meltdown: Why did it happen in the United States?," BIS Working Papers 259, Bank for International Settlements.
- W. Erwin Diewert, 2002.
"Harmonized Indexes of Consumer Prices: Their Conceptual Foundations,"
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES),
Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 138(IV), pages 547-637, December.
- Diewert, Erwin, 2002. "Harmonized indexes of consumer prices: their conceptual foundations," Working Paper Series 0130, European Central Bank.
- W. Erwin Diewert, 1980. "Aggregation Problems in the Measurement of Capital," NBER Chapters, in: The Measurement of Capital, pages 433-538 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Palmquist, Raymond B., 2006. "Property Value Models," Handbook of Environmental Economics, in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 763-819 Elsevier.
- Anthony Pennington-Cross & Michelle H. Dreiman, 2002.
"Alternative Methods of Increasing the Precision of Weighted Repeat Sales House Prices Indices,"
Staff Working Papers
02-02, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
- Michelle H. Dreiman & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2004. "Alternative Methods of Increasing the Precision of Weighted Repeat Sales House Prices Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 299-317, 05.
- Bajari, Patrick & Benkard, C. Lanier & Krainer, John, 2005.
"House prices and consumer welfare,"
Journal of Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 474-487, November.
- Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard & John Krainer, 2003. "House Prices and Consumer Welfare," NBER Working Papers 9783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bajari, Patrick & Benkard, C. Lanier & Krainer, John, 2004. "House Prices and Consumer Welfare," Research Papers 1840, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- Diewert, Erwin & Nakamura, Alice O., 2009.
"Accounting for Housing in a CPI,"
Economics working papers
erwin_diewert-2009-19, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 12 Mar 2009.
- Schreyer, Paul, 2009. "User costs and bubbles in land markets," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 267-272, September.
- W. Erwin Diewert, 2003. "Hedonic Regressions. A Consumer Theory Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Scanner Data and Price Indexes, pages 317-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Randolph, William C, 1988. "Housing Depreciation and Aging Bias in the Consumer Price Index," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(3), pages 359-71, July.
- Dan Usher, 1980. "The Measurement of Capital," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ushe80-1, 08.
- D. S. Prasada Rao, 2005. "On The Equivalence Of Weighted Country-Product-Dummy (Cpd) Method And The Rao-System For Multilateral Price Comparisons," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 51(4), pages 571-580, December.
- David Genesove, 2003.
"The Nominal Rigidity of Apartment Rents,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 844-853, November.
- repec:pri:rpdevs:deaton_pppp_version_aug_06 is not listed on IDEAS
- Dennis R. Capozza & Charlotte Mack & Patric H. Hendershott & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "The Determinants of House Price Dynamics," ERES eres2002_106, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
- D. W. Jorgenson & Z. Griliches, 1967. "The Explanation of Productivity Change," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 249-283.
- Adam B. Ashcraft & Til Schuermann, 2008.
"Understanding the securitization of subprime mortgage credit,"
318, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Ashcraft, Adam B. & Schuermann, Til, 2008. "Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 191-309, June.
- James Poterba & Todd Sinai, 2008. "Tax Expenditures for Owner-Occupied Housing: Deductions for Property Taxes and Mortgage Interest and the Exclusion of Imputed Rental Income," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 84-89, May.
- Dougherty, Ann & Van Order, Robert, 1982. "Inflation, Housing Costs, and the Consumer Price Index," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(1), pages 154-64, March.
- Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Randal Verbrugge & Thesia I. Garner, 2009.
"Reconciling User Costs and Rental Equivalence: Evidence from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey,"
427, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Garner, Thesia I. & Verbrugge, Randal, 2009. "Reconciling user costs and rental equivalence: Evidence from the US consumer expenditure survey," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 172-192, September.
- Diewert, W E, 1974. "Intertemporal Consumer Theory and the Demand for Durables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(3), pages 497-516, May.
- Katz, Arnold J, 1983. "Valuing the Services of Consumer Durables," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 29(4), pages 405-27, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:18:y:2009:i:3:p:156-171. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.