Long-run intergenerational social mobility and the distribution of surnames

We develop a novel methodology to analyze intergenerational social mobility over long periods of time when the precise ancestors of the individual cannot be identi...ed. We base our approach on the incorporation of surnames in the analysis of social mobility, applying our methodology to assess the degree of intergenerational social mobility within two Spanish regions from the late 19th century to the beginning of the 21st century. The results show that the probability of having a high educational level, or of belonging to a high-status socioeconomic group, still depends on the socioeconomic status of the great-great-grandparents. Our analysis suggests, however, that such dependence will vanish in the next-to-present generation.