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On the (Mis)Specification of Seasonality and Its Consequences: an Empirical Investigation with U.S. Data

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  • Ghysels, E.
  • Lee, H.S.
  • Siklos, P.L.

Abstract

It is well known that mis-specification of a trend leads to spurious cycles in detrended data (see, e.g., Nelson and Kang (1981). Seasonal-adjustment procedures make assumptions, either implicitly or explicitly, about roots on the unit circle both at the zero and seasonal frequencies. Consequently, seasonal-adjustment procedures may produce spurious seasonal variation and other statistically undesirable effects. In this paper we document, for a large class of widely used U.S. quarterly macroeconomic series, the effects of competing seasonal-adjustment procedures on the univariate time-series properties of the adjusted series. We also investigate which procedures are most appropriate given the properties of the data. Overall, we find very significant differences and evidence that several U.S. macroeconomic time series contain a mixture of deterministic and stochastic seasonal components.
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  • Ghysels, E. & Lee, H.S. & Siklos, P.L., 1992. "On the (Mis)Specification of Seasonality and Its Consequences: an Empirical Investigation with U.S. Data," Cahiers de recherche 9237, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    • Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:9237
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1866/2137
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    1. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-751, May.
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    7. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Hylleberg, S. & Lee, H. S., 1993. "The Japanese consumption function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 275-298.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
    2. Shen Chung-Hua & Huang Tai-Hsin, 1999. "Money Demand and Seasonal Cointegration," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 97-123.
    3. Granger, C. W. J. & Siklos, Pierre L., 1995. "Systematic sampling, temporal aggregation, seasonal adjustment, and cointegration theory and evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 357-369.
    4. Braun, R. Anton & Evans, Charles L., 1995. "Seasonality and equilibrium business cycle theories," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 503-531, April.
    5. Lee, Hahn Shik & Siklos, Pierre L., 1997. "The role of seasonality in economic time series reinterpreting money-output causality in U.S. data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 381-391, September.
    6. Chen, Nan-Kuang & Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2010. "House prices, collateral constraint, and the asymmetric effect on consumption," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 26-37, March.
    7. Hylleberg, Svend, 1995. "Tests for seasonal unit roots general to specific or specific to general?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 5-25, September.
    8. Hecq, Alain, 1998. "Does seasonal adjustment induce common cycles?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 289-297, June.
    9. Eric Ghysels & Denise R. Osborn & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 1999. "Seasonal Nonstationarity and Near-Nonstationarity," CIRANO Working Papers 99s-05, CIRANO.
    10. Cubadda, Gianluca, 1999. "Common Cycles in Seasonal Non-stationary Time Series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 273-291, May-June.
    11. Smith, Jeremy & Otero, Jesus, 1997. "Structural breaks and seasonal integration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 13-19, September.
    12. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Calvert Jump, Robert & Kohler, Karsten & Cavallero, Julian, 2019. "Short and medium term financial-real cycles: An empirical assessment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 81-96.
    13. Huang, Tai-Hsin & Shen, Chung-Hua, 1999. "Applying the seasonal error correction model to the demand for international reserves in Taiwan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 107-131, January.
    14. Eric Ghysels, 1993. "A time series model with periodic stochastic regime switching," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 84, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    15. Xiufeng Yan, 2021. "Autoregressive conditional duration modelling of high frequency data," Papers 2111.02300, arXiv.org.
    16. Wells, J. M., 1997. "Modelling seasonal patterns and long-run trends in U.S. time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 407-420, September.
    17. Justyna Wr'oblewska, 2020. "Bayesian analysis of seasonally cointegrated VAR model," Papers 2012.14820, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    18. Xiufeng Yan, 2021. "Multiplicative Component GARCH Model of Intraday Volatility," Papers 2111.02376, arXiv.org.
    19. Alain Hecq & Sean Telg & Lenard Lieb, 2017. "Do Seasonal Adjustments Induce Noncausal Dynamics in Inflation Rates?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-22, October.
    20. Albertson, Kevin & Aylen, Jonathan, 1999. "Forecasting using a periodic transfer function: with an application to the UK price of ferrous scrap," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 409-419, October.

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