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Capital Market, Severity Of Business Cycle, And Probability Of An Economic Downturn

  • Piyapas Tharavanij

This paper investigates the relationships of capital market, severity of economic contraction, and probability of an economic downturn. The finding supports a theoretical prediction that countries with more advanced capital markets would face less severe business cycle output contraction, and a lower chance of an economic downturn. The results hold even after controlling for other relevant variables, country specific effects, and state dependences. However, the marginal effects are small. Results are generated using panel estimation technique with panel data from 44 countries covering the years 1975 through 2004.

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File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/research/papers/2007/3207capitalmarkettharavanij.pdf
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Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Economics in its series Monash Economics Working Papers with number 32-07.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2007-32
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia
Phone: +61-3-9905-2493
Fax: +61-3-9905-5476
Web page: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/Email:


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  1. Matias Braun & Borja Larrain, 2004. "Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-industry Evidence," Finance 0403001, EconWPA.
  2. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64 Elsevier.
  3. Mark Stewart, 2006. "Maximum simulated likelihood estimation of random-effects dynamic probit models with autocorrelated errors," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 6(2), pages 256-272, June.
  4. Falko Fecht, 2004. "On the Stability of Different Financial Systems," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(6), pages 969-1014, December.
  5. Jose A. Lopez & Mark M. Spiegel, 2002. "Financial structure and macroeconomic performance over the short and long run," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2002-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Thomas Dalsgaard & Jørgen Elmeskov & Cyn-Young Park, 2002. "Ongoing Changes in the Business Cycle: Evidence and Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 315, OECD Publishing.
  7. King, Robert G & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 717-37, August.
  8. Levine, Ross, 2002. "Bank-Based or Market-Based Financial Systems: Which Is Better?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 398-428, October.
  9. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 2001. "Financial Systems, Industrial Structure, and Growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 467-482.
  10. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Detrending and Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Beck, Thorstein & Lundberg, Mattias & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2001. "Financial intermediary development and growth volatility : do intermediaries dampen or magnify shocks?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2707, The World Bank.
  12. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 3575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  14. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silane & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "Legal Determinants of External Finance," NBER Working Papers 5879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Piyapas Tharavanij, 2007. "Capital Market And Business Cycle Volatility," Monash Economics Working Papers 33-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  16. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, November.
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