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Capital Market, Severity Of Business Cycle, And Probability Of An Economic Downturn

  • Piyapas Tharavanij

This paper investigates the relationships of capital market, severity of economic contraction, and probability of an economic downturn. The finding supports a theoretical prediction that countries with more advanced capital markets would face less severe business cycle output contraction, and a lower chance of an economic downturn. The results hold even after controlling for other relevant variables, country specific effects, and state dependences. However, the marginal effects are small. Results are generated using panel estimation technique with panel data from 44 countries covering the years 1975 through 2004.

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Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Economics in its series Monash Economics Working Papers with number 32-07.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2007-32
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Department of Economics, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia

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  1. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Detrending and Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Falko Fecht, 2004. "On the Stability of Different Financial Systems," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(6), pages 969-1014, December.
  3. Piyapas Tharavanij, 2007. "Capital Market And Business Cycle Volatility," Monash Economics Working Papers 33-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  4. Beck, Thorstein & Lundberg, Mattias & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2001. "Financial intermediary development and growth volatility : do intermediaries dampen or magnify shocks?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2707, The World Bank.
  5. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 2001. "Financial Systems, Industrial Structure, and Growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 467-482.
  6. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Thomas Dalsgaard & Jørgen Elmeskov & Cyn-Young Park, 2002. "Ongoing Changes in the Business Cycle – Evidence and Causes," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
  8. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, September.
  9. Matías Braun & Borja Larrain, 2005. "Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-Industry Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1097-1128, 06.
  10. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson & Yunyong Thaicharoen, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," NBER Working Papers 9124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Levine, Ross, 2002. "Bank-Based or Market-Based Financial Systems: Which Is Better?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 398-428, October.
  12. La Porta, Rafael & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. " Legal Determinants of External Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1131-50, July.
  13. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64 Elsevier.
  14. Mark Stewart, 2006. "Maximum simulated likelihood estimation of random-effects dynamic probit models with autocorrelated errors," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 6(2), pages 256-272, June.
  15. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
  16. Jose A. Lopez & Mark M. Spiegel, 2002. "Financial structure and macroeconomic performance over the short and long run," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2002-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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