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Financial Structure and Macroeconomic Volatility: Theory and Evidence

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  • Huizinga, Harry
  • Zhu, Dantao

Abstract

This paper presents a simple model capturing differences between debt and equity finance to examine how financial structure matters for macroeconomic volatility. Debt finance is relatively cheap in the sense that debt holders need to verify relatively few profitability states, but debt finance may lead to costly bankruptcy. At the aggregate level, a more debt-based financial structure leads to a higher bankruptcy rate. Therefore, aggregate output is more variable in case of a heavy reliance on debt finance. This paper provides empirical evidence that countries with more equity finance have a lower variance of GDP and a lower probability of episodes of negative economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Huizinga, Harry & Zhu, Dantao, 2006. "Financial Structure and Macroeconomic Volatility: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 5697, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5697
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bremus, Franziska & Buch, Claudia M., 2017. "Granularity in banking and growth: Does financial openness matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 300-316.
    2. repec:taf:regstd:v:50:y:2016:i:11:p:1849-1862 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Markus Eller & Jarko Fidrmuc & Zuzana Fungáčová, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Regional Output Volatility: Evidence from Russia," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(11), pages 1849-1862, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bankruptcy costs; financial structure; macroeconomic volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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