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Measuring and managing credit risk in SMEs: a quantitative and qualitative rating model


  • Ivan DE NONI


  • Antonio LORENZON


  • Luigi ORSI



The main aim of this paper is to develop a qualitative and quantitative credit risk rating model for SMEs. The scope of this model is to assign, through a discriminant function (see Altman,1969), a synthetic judgment of the firm management ( ). First of all it must characterize variables that multiplied for a weighted coefficient allow us to determine a score of the analyzed enterprises. The classification is based on a discriminating function that maximize the variance of the variables among the firms of two groups and to minimize the variance among the firms of the same group. An important aspect of the model is its ability to enclose in the judgment of rating also the qualitative part. The objective is to modify the quantitative score including the qualitative judgments that emerge from a qualitative questionnaire. The final rating, therefore, is constructed assigning the final score (quantitative plus qualitative) to the class of rating that it includes such value. So a synthetic judgment of the solvency, the solidity and the forecasts is supplied about the firm analysis. In conclusion we can say that the obtained results confirm the reliability of the model. The error percentage, in fact, is only of 13. 65% for the performing firm and 8. 91% for the non performing. Further analyses have demonstrated that the model turns out reliable also in relation to possible distortions generated from dimensional (analysis for number of employers) and geographical (analysis for province) effects. Contrarily a surveying on industry does not give the same results. Various industry are characterize from different variability coefficients and it implies a meaningful sectorial effect

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan DE NONI & Antonio LORENZON & Luigi ORSI, 2007. "Measuring and managing credit risk in SMEs: a quantitative and qualitative rating model," Departmental Working Papers 2007-36, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
  • Handle: RePEc:mil:wpdepa:2007-36

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Altman, Edward I. & Haldeman, Robert G. & Narayanan, P., 1977. "ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-54, June.
    2. Andrea GANZAROLI & Gianluca FISCATO & Luciano PILOTTI, 2006. "A scoreboard to evaluate clusters’ competitiveness in the knowledge-based economy. An empirical study on Emilia Romagna region," Departmental Working Papers 2006-30, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    3. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    4. Andrea GANZAROLI & Gianluca FISCATO & Luciano PILOTTI, 2006. "Does business succession enhance firms’ innovation capacity? Results from an exploratory analysis in Italian SMEs," Departmental Working Papers 2006-29, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    5. Anitesh Barua & Charles H. Kriebel & Tridas Mukhopadhyay, 1995. "Information Technologies and Business Value: An Analytic and Empirical Investigation," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 3-23, March.
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    More about this item


    SMEs; Rating Model; Competitiveness; Networking;

    JEL classification:

    • M14 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - Corporate Culture; Diversity; Social Responsibility
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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